Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025?
Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025?
None in 2025 100.0%
Mike Waltz <1%
Stephen Miran <1%
J.D. Vance <1%
$1,044,482 Vol.
$1,044,482 Vol.
Dec 31, 2025
Mike Waltz
No
Stephen Miran
No
J.D. Vance
No
Marco Rubio
No
Scott Bessent
No
Pete Hegseth
No
Pam Bondi
No
Doug Burgum
No
Brooke Rollins
No
Howard Lutnick
No
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
No
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
No
Scott Turner
No
Sean Duffy
No
Chris Wright
No
Linda McMahon
No
Doug Collins
No
Kristi Noem
No
None in 2025
Yes
Lee Zeldin
No
Susie Wiles
No
Tulsi Gabbard
No
Russell T. Vought
No
John Ratcliffe
No
Jamieson Greer
No
Kelly Loeffler
No
None in 2025 100.0%
Mike Waltz <1%
Stephen Miran <1%
J.D. Vance <1%
$1,044,482 Vol.
$1,044,482 Vol.
Dec 31, 2025
Mike Waltz
$17,386 Vol.
No
Stephen Miran
$77,707 Vol.
No
J.D. Vance
$321,435 Vol.
No
Marco Rubio
$27,525 Vol.
No
Scott Bessent
$22,643 Vol.
No
Pete Hegseth
$62,130 Vol.
No
Pam Bondi
$36,491 Vol.
No
Doug Burgum
$11,443 Vol.
No
Brooke Rollins
$24,799 Vol.
No
Howard Lutnick
$20,272 Vol.
No
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
$14,398 Vol.
No
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$31,592 Vol.
No
Scott Turner
$14,683 Vol.
No
Sean Duffy
$14,721 Vol.
No
Chris Wright
$15,796 Vol.
No
Linda McMahon
$12,004 Vol.
No
Doug Collins
$18,828 Vol.
No
Kristi Noem
$57,119 Vol.
No
None in 2025
$84,447 Vol.
Yes
Lee Zeldin
$16,255 Vol.
No
Susie Wiles
$46,307 Vol.
No
Tulsi Gabbard
$33,844 Vol.
No
Russell T. Vought
$14,208 Vol.
No
John Ratcliffe
$12,765 Vol.
No
Jamieson Greer
$14,534 Vol.
No
Kelly Loeffler
$21,149 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the next individual that it is announced will leave the Trump Cabinet, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None in 2025”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name is alphabetically first.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position (e.g. Mike Waltz) will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the next individual that it is announced will leave the Trump Cabinet, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None in 2025”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name is alphabetically first.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position (e.g. Mike Waltz) will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name is alphabetically first.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position (e.g. Mike Waltz) will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Created At: Jul 21, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$1,044,482End Date
Dec 31, 2025Created At
Jul 21, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions