Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 35% probability for WTI Crude Oil (CL) hitting $85 by March 31, primarily pressured by the latest EIA inventory report showing a surprise 3.8 million barrel build last week, pushing spot prices to $81.50 amid weak Chinese demand data and robust US shale output exceeding 13.2 million bpd. Market dynamics reflect contango in the futures curve, signaling ample supply, while USD strength from Fed hawkishness caps upside. Key catalysts ahead include tomorrow's EIA storage update—consensus eyes another 2.5 million build—and OPEC+'s April 3 monitoring meeting, where adherence to cuts will be scrutinized; breakeven sits near $84 for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWill Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of March?
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of March?
$52,084,528 Vol.
↑ $200
1%
↑ $180
1%
↑ $150
2%
↑ $140
3%
↑ $130
7%
↑ $120
12%
↑ $110
22%
↑ $105
38%
↑ $100
60%
↓ $90
44%
↓ $85
19%
↓ $80
12%
↓ $75
5%
↓ $70
4%
↓ $40
<1%
↓ $65
3%
↓ $50
1%
↓ $60
1%
↓ $55
1%
↓ $45
<1%
$52,084,528 Vol.
↑ $200
1%
↑ $180
1%
↑ $150
2%
↑ $140
3%
↑ $130
7%
↑ $120
12%
↑ $110
22%
↑ $105
38%
↑ $100
60%
↓ $90
44%
↓ $85
19%
↓ $80
12%
↓ $75
5%
↓ $70
4%
↓ $40
<1%
↓ $65
3%
↓ $50
1%
↓ $60
1%
↓ $55
1%
↓ $45
<1%
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Market Opened: Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 35% probability for WTI Crude Oil (CL) hitting $85 by March 31, primarily pressured by the latest EIA inventory report showing a surprise 3.8 million barrel build last week, pushing spot prices to $81.50 amid weak Chinese demand data and robust US shale output exceeding 13.2 million bpd. Market dynamics reflect contango in the futures curve, signaling ample supply, while USD strength from Fed hawkishness caps upside. Key catalysts ahead include tomorrow's EIA storage update—consensus eyes another 2.5 million build—and OPEC+'s April 3 monitoring meeting, where adherence to cuts will be scrutinized; breakeven sits near $84 for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated


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