Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors no hurricane landfall in the continental U.S. by May 31, with "No" at a market-implied 94.3% probability, reflecting the climatological near-impossibility of such an event before the official Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports no tropical cyclones active as of March 28, with Tropical Weather Outlook issuance paused until May 15 or earlier if needed; sea surface temperatures remain below the 26.5°C threshold for hurricane formation, compounded by high vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air suppressing development. No U.S. hurricane landfalls (Saffir-Simpson Category 1+ with sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) have occurred before June since records began in 1851. While an unprecedented surge in Gulf or Caribbean SSTs and shear collapse could theoretically enable a rapid-intensifying system steered toward the coast, such conditions have never materialized this early, sustaining trader conviction absent new NHC advisories.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWill a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?
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May 31, 2026
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May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors no hurricane landfall in the continental U.S. by May 31, with "No" at a market-implied 94.3% probability, reflecting the climatological near-impossibility of such an event before the official Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports no tropical cyclones active as of March 28, with Tropical Weather Outlook issuance paused until May 15 or earlier if needed; sea surface temperatures remain below the 26.5°C threshold for hurricane formation, compounded by high vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air suppressing development. No U.S. hurricane landfalls (Saffir-Simpson Category 1+ with sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) have occurred before June since records began in 1851. While an unprecedented surge in Gulf or Caribbean SSTs and shear collapse could theoretically enable a rapid-intensifying system steered toward the coast, such conditions have never materialized this early, sustaining trader conviction absent new NHC advisories.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
Market Opened: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
Volume
$9,276End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors no hurricane landfall in the continental U.S. by May 31, with "No" at a market-implied 94.3% probability, reflecting the climatological near-impossibility of such an event before the official Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports no tropical cyclones active as of March 28, with Tropical Weather Outlook issuance paused until May 15 or earlier if needed; sea surface temperatures remain below the 26.5°C threshold for hurricane formation, compounded by high vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air suppressing development. No U.S. hurricane landfalls (Saffir-Simpson Category 1+ with sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) have occurred before June since records began in 1851. While an unprecedented surge in Gulf or Caribbean SSTs and shear collapse could theoretically enable a rapid-intensifying system steered toward the coast, such conditions have never materialized this early, sustaining trader conviction absent new NHC advisories.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
Volume
$9,276End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors no hurricane landfall in the continental U.S. by May 31, with "No" at a market-implied 94.3% probability, reflecting the climatological near-impossibility of such an event before the official Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports no tropical cyclones active as of March 28, with Tropical Weather Outlook issuance paused until May 15 or earlier if needed; sea surface temperatures remain below the 26.5°C threshold for hurricane formation, compounded by high vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air suppressing development. No U.S. hurricane landfalls (Saffir-Simpson Category 1+ with sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) have occurred before June since records began in 1851. While an unprecedented surge in Gulf or Caribbean SSTs and shear collapse could theoretically enable a rapid-intensifying system steered toward the coast, such conditions have never materialized this early, sustaining trader conviction absent new NHC advisories.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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