Singapore's National Environment Agency (NEA) forecasts a maximum temperature of 33°C on March 19, aligning with ensemble model outputs from ECMWF and GFS that show light cloud cover and moderate humidity capping peaks, fueling the market's 100% implied probability for this outcome. Historical data reinforces this, with March diurnal highs averaging 32–33°C amid the tail end of the northeast monsoon, and recent days recording similar levels without exceeding 34°C despite lingering El Niño influences. Trader consensus reflects low volatility in tropical convection patterns. A realistic challenge would require prolonged clear skies from anomalous subsidence or urban heat island amplification, potentially nudging toward 34°C+, though NEA's 90% confidence interval stays below 34°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Singapore on March 19?
Highest temperature in Singapore on March 19?
33°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$15,499 Vol.
$15,499 Vol.
25°C or below
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
Yes
34°C
No
35°C or higher
No
33°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$15,499 Vol.
$15,499 Vol.
25°C or below
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
Yes
34°C
No
35°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Singapore Changi Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sg/singapore/WSSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 15, 2026, 6:12 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sg/singapore/WSSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sg/singapore/WSSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Singapore's National Environment Agency (NEA) forecasts a maximum temperature of 33°C on March 19, aligning with ensemble model outputs from ECMWF and GFS that show light cloud cover and moderate humidity capping peaks, fueling the market's 100% implied probability for this outcome. Historical data reinforces this, with March diurnal highs averaging 32–33°C amid the tail end of the northeast monsoon, and recent days recording similar levels without exceeding 34°C despite lingering El Niño influences. Trader consensus reflects low volatility in tropical convection patterns. A realistic challenge would require prolonged clear skies from anomalous subsidence or urban heat island amplification, potentially nudging toward 34°C+, though NEA's 90% confidence interval stays below 34°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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