Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 300-359 tweets for Elon Musk during March 20-27, 2026, with 320-339 edging out at 12.5% implied probability, reflecting his volatile posting patterns amid political and business headlines. Recent surges—averaging 40-50 daily posts in late 2024 tied to DOGE advisory role and Trump administration buzz—fuel optimism for sustained high volume, though historical data shows dips below 300 during quieter weeks like product lulls. Key differentiators include potential catalysts like Tesla earnings, SpaceX launches, or election-year drama boosting upper ranges, versus burnout risks tempering extremes; traders eye his X engagement as a pop culture barometer, where viral memes and policy rants drive spikes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated320-339 13%
300-319 12%
280-299 11%
340-359 11%
$1,144,764 Vol.
$1,144,764 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
1%
180-199
2%
200-219
4%
220-239
6%
240-259
8%
260-279
8%
280-299
11%
300-319
12%
320-339
13%
340-359
11%
360-379
10%
380-399
7%
400-419
5%
420-439
3%
440-459
2%
460-479
2%
480-499
1%
500-519
1%
520-539
1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
320-339 13%
300-319 12%
280-299 11%
340-359 11%
$1,144,764 Vol.
$1,144,764 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
1%
180-199
2%
200-219
4%
220-239
6%
240-259
8%
260-279
8%
280-299
11%
300-319
12%
320-339
13%
340-359
11%
360-379
10%
380-399
7%
400-419
5%
420-439
3%
440-459
2%
460-479
2%
480-499
1%
500-519
1%
520-539
1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 17, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 300-359 tweets for Elon Musk during March 20-27, 2026, with 320-339 edging out at 12.5% implied probability, reflecting his volatile posting patterns amid political and business headlines. Recent surges—averaging 40-50 daily posts in late 2024 tied to DOGE advisory role and Trump administration buzz—fuel optimism for sustained high volume, though historical data shows dips below 300 during quieter weeks like product lulls. Key differentiators include potential catalysts like Tesla earnings, SpaceX launches, or election-year drama boosting upper ranges, versus burnout risks tempering extremes; traders eye his X engagement as a pop culture barometer, where viral memes and policy rants drive spikes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated


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