Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 340-399 tweets from March 20-27, 2026, with 340-359 and 360-379 ranges each at around 11% implied probability, reflecting his explosive late-2024 pace of 40-50 posts daily amid political firestorms and X algorithm tweaks. This clustering stems from historical data showing weekly volumes surging past 350 during controversies like the 2024 election, versus quieter 200-300 tallies in lulls, as tracked by social analytics. Differentiators include potential SpaceX launches or Tesla reveals that week—unconfirmed but pattern-matching past spikes—against downside risks from travel or policy shifts, keeping lower buckets like 300-319 viable at 9.5% amid his unpredictable viral style.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated340-359 12%
360-379 12%
320-339 11%
380-399 9.7%
$1,449,422 Vol.
$1,449,422 Vol.
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
1%
200-219
1%
220-239
2%
240-259
7%
260-279
7%
280-299
8%
300-319
10%
320-339
11%
340-359
12%
360-379
12%
380-399
10%
400-419
9%
420-439
5%
440-459
4%
460-479
2%
480-499
1%
500-519
1%
520-539
1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
340-359 12%
360-379 12%
320-339 11%
380-399 9.7%
$1,449,422 Vol.
$1,449,422 Vol.
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
1%
200-219
1%
220-239
2%
240-259
7%
260-279
7%
280-299
8%
300-319
10%
320-339
11%
340-359
12%
360-379
12%
380-399
10%
400-419
9%
420-439
5%
440-459
4%
460-479
2%
480-499
1%
500-519
1%
520-539
1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 17, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 340-399 tweets from March 20-27, 2026, with 340-359 and 360-379 ranges each at around 11% implied probability, reflecting his explosive late-2024 pace of 40-50 posts daily amid political firestorms and X algorithm tweaks. This clustering stems from historical data showing weekly volumes surging past 350 during controversies like the 2024 election, versus quieter 200-300 tallies in lulls, as tracked by social analytics. Differentiators include potential SpaceX launches or Tesla reveals that week—unconfirmed but pattern-matching past spikes—against downside risks from travel or policy shifts, keeping lower buckets like 300-319 viable at 9.5% amid his unpredictable viral style.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
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