Persistent Houthi rebel attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait— a vital chokepoint for 12% of global trade and 5 million barrels per day of oil—have slashed shipping volumes by over 50% in recent weeks, forcing rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope and inflating container freight rates by 300-400% on key Asia-Europe routes. US-UK coalition airstrikes, including strikes on 18 Houthi targets last week, have degraded missile stockpiles but failed to deter ongoing drone and ballistic threats, as evidenced by attacks on two merchant ships yesterday. Baltic Dry Index pressures reflect broader supply chain strains, with Suez Canal revenues down 40% year-over-year. Traders price in low closure odds amid naval escorts and Yemen truce negotiations, watching upcoming US policy announcements and March oil inventories for escalation signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
$160,102 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
March 31
4%
April 30
27%
$160,102 Vol.
March 31
$104,780 Vol.
4%
April 30
$55,322 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.Persistent Houthi rebel attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait— a vital chokepoint for 12% of global trade and 5 million barrels per day of oil—have slashed shipping volumes by over 50% in recent weeks, forcing rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope and inflating container freight rates by 300-400% on key Asia-Europe routes. US-UK coalition airstrikes, including strikes on 18 Houthi targets last week, have degraded missile stockpiles but failed to deter ongoing drone and ballistic threats, as evidenced by attacks on two merchant ships yesterday. Baltic Dry Index pressures reflect broader supply chain strains, with Suez Canal revenues down 40% year-over-year. Traders price in low closure odds amid naval escorts and Yemen truce negotiations, watching upcoming US policy announcements and March oil inventories for escalation signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.
Market Opened: Mar 16, 2026, 2:42 PM ET
Volume
$160,102End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 16, 2026, 2:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.Persistent Houthi rebel attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait— a vital chokepoint for 12% of global trade and 5 million barrels per day of oil—have slashed shipping volumes by over 50% in recent weeks, forcing rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope and inflating container freight rates by 300-400% on key Asia-Europe routes. US-UK coalition airstrikes, including strikes on 18 Houthi targets last week, have degraded missile stockpiles but failed to deter ongoing drone and ballistic threats, as evidenced by attacks on two merchant ships yesterday. Baltic Dry Index pressures reflect broader supply chain strains, with Suez Canal revenues down 40% year-over-year. Traders price in low closure odds amid naval escorts and Yemen truce negotiations, watching upcoming US policy announcements and March oil inventories for escalation signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.
Volume
$160,102End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 16, 2026, 2:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent Houthi rebel attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait— a vital chokepoint for 12% of global trade and 5 million barrels per day of oil—have slashed shipping volumes by over 50% in recent weeks, forcing rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope and inflating container freight rates by 300-400% on key Asia-Europe routes. US-UK coalition airstrikes, including strikes on 18 Houthi targets last week, have degraded missile stockpiles but failed to deter ongoing drone and ballistic threats, as evidenced by attacks on two merchant ships yesterday. Baltic Dry Index pressures reflect broader supply chain strains, with Suez Canal revenues down 40% year-over-year. Traders price in low closure odds amid naval escorts and Yemen truce negotiations, watching upcoming US policy announcements and March oil inventories for escalation signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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