Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 98% against US deportation of illegal migrants to Argentina by March 31, driven by the absence of any executed flights, official DHS or ICE announcements, or bilateral agreements since early January reports of preliminary talks. Those discussions, quickly denied by Argentine President Milei, stalled amid logistical hurdles like securing air transport, diplomatic approvals, and on-ground acceptance protocols for third-country removals—none of which have materialized in the past 60 days. With under 48 hours remaining, the Trump administration's mass deportation push via border security executive actions has prioritized home-country returns and detention expansions over novel arrangements. Only an unprecedented last-minute deal and rapid flight deployment could shift outcomes, though historical precedents for such urgency remain rare.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
はい
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any illegal alien who is not a citizen of Argentina in the custody of U.S. law enforcement or correctional authorities, is transferred to Argentina for the purpose of incarceration or deportation by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify, an illegal alien must be transferred to Argentina, and physically enter the terrestrial territory. Entering the maritime territory or airspace will not qualify.
Any transfer meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or reversed by judicial or other actions.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 98% against US deportation of illegal migrants to Argentina by March 31, driven by the absence of any executed flights, official DHS or ICE announcements, or bilateral agreements since early January reports of preliminary talks. Those discussions, quickly denied by Argentine President Milei, stalled amid logistical hurdles like securing air transport, diplomatic approvals, and on-ground acceptance protocols for third-country removals—none of which have materialized in the past 60 days. With under 48 hours remaining, the Trump administration's mass deportation push via border security executive actions has prioritized home-country returns and detention expansions over novel arrangements. Only an unprecedented last-minute deal and rapid flight deployment could shift outcomes, though historical precedents for such urgency remain rare.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any illegal alien who is not a citizen of Argentina in the custody of U.S. law enforcement or correctional authorities, is transferred to Argentina for the purpose of incarceration or deportation by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify, an illegal alien must be transferred to Argentina, and physically enter the terrestrial territory. Entering the maritime territory or airspace will not qualify.
Any transfer meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or reversed by judicial or other actions.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
To qualify, an illegal alien must be transferred to Argentina, and physically enter the terrestrial territory. Entering the maritime territory or airspace will not qualify.
Any transfer meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or reversed by judicial or other actions.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jan 30, 2026, 6:35 PM ET
音量
$6,526終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 30, 2026, 6:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any illegal alien who is not a citizen of Argentina in the custody of U.S. law enforcement or correctional authorities, is transferred to Argentina for the purpose of incarceration or deportation by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify, an illegal alien must be transferred to Argentina, and physically enter the terrestrial territory. Entering the maritime territory or airspace will not qualify.
Any transfer meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or reversed by judicial or other actions.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 98% against US deportation of illegal migrants to Argentina by March 31, driven by the absence of any executed flights, official DHS or ICE announcements, or bilateral agreements since early January reports of preliminary talks. Those discussions, quickly denied by Argentine President Milei, stalled amid logistical hurdles like securing air transport, diplomatic approvals, and on-ground acceptance protocols for third-country removals—none of which have materialized in the past 60 days. With under 48 hours remaining, the Trump administration's mass deportation push via border security executive actions has prioritized home-country returns and detention expansions over novel arrangements. Only an unprecedented last-minute deal and rapid flight deployment could shift outcomes, though historical precedents for such urgency remain rare.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any illegal alien who is not a citizen of Argentina in the custody of U.S. law enforcement or correctional authorities, is transferred to Argentina for the purpose of incarceration or deportation by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify, an illegal alien must be transferred to Argentina, and physically enter the terrestrial territory. Entering the maritime territory or airspace will not qualify.
Any transfer meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or reversed by judicial or other actions.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
To qualify, an illegal alien must be transferred to Argentina, and physically enter the terrestrial territory. Entering the maritime territory or airspace will not qualify.
Any transfer meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or reversed by judicial or other actions.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$6,526終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 30, 2026, 6:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 98% against US deportation of illegal migrants to Argentina by March 31, driven by the absence of any executed flights, official DHS or ICE announcements, or bilateral agreements since early January reports of preliminary talks. Those discussions, quickly denied by Argentine President Milei, stalled amid logistical hurdles like securing air transport, diplomatic approvals, and on-ground acceptance protocols for third-country removals—none of which have materialized in the past 60 days. With under 48 hours remaining, the Trump administration's mass deportation push via border security executive actions has prioritized home-country returns and detention expansions over novel arrangements. Only an unprecedented last-minute deal and rapid flight deployment could shift outcomes, though historical precedents for such urgency remain rare.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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