Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs "No" at 97.9% implied probability for Condoleezza Rice joining the Trump administration by April 30, driven by the absence of any official nomination, appointment, or substantive rumors two-and-a-half months into the term, with most cabinet slots filled amid recent changes like Markwayne Mullin's ascension to Homeland Security Secretary. Rice's March White House visits, amid Iran tensions where she advised "neutering" military capabilities, were informal consultations from her ex-Secretary of State perch, not indicators of a roster move, as she remains entrenched as Stanford's Denning Professor and Hoover Institution director with active 2026 commitments. High confidence stems from Trump's preference for loyalist starters over Bush-era veterans, though a sudden vacancy in a key spot like national security advisor could spark a late-game Hail Mary shift before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/04/30
新規
新規
2026/04/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially nominates or appoints Condoleezza Rice to his administration between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs "No" at 97.9% implied probability for Condoleezza Rice joining the Trump administration by April 30, driven by the absence of any official nomination, appointment, or substantive rumors two-and-a-half months into the term, with most cabinet slots filled amid recent changes like Markwayne Mullin's ascension to Homeland Security Secretary. Rice's March White House visits, amid Iran tensions where she advised "neutering" military capabilities, were informal consultations from her ex-Secretary of State perch, not indicators of a roster move, as she remains entrenched as Stanford's Denning Professor and Hoover Institution director with active 2026 commitments. High confidence stems from Trump's preference for loyalist starters over Bush-era veterans, though a sudden vacancy in a key spot like national security advisor could spark a late-game Hail Mary shift before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially nominates or appoints Condoleezza Rice to his administration between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 11, 2026, 1:47 PM ET
音量
$1,636終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 11, 2026, 1:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially nominates or appoints Condoleezza Rice to his administration between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs "No" at 97.9% implied probability for Condoleezza Rice joining the Trump administration by April 30, driven by the absence of any official nomination, appointment, or substantive rumors two-and-a-half months into the term, with most cabinet slots filled amid recent changes like Markwayne Mullin's ascension to Homeland Security Secretary. Rice's March White House visits, amid Iran tensions where she advised "neutering" military capabilities, were informal consultations from her ex-Secretary of State perch, not indicators of a roster move, as she remains entrenched as Stanford's Denning Professor and Hoover Institution director with active 2026 commitments. High confidence stems from Trump's preference for loyalist starters over Bush-era veterans, though a sudden vacancy in a key spot like national security advisor could spark a late-game Hail Mary shift before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially nominates or appoints Condoleezza Rice to his administration between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$1,636終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 11, 2026, 1:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs "No" at 97.9% implied probability for Condoleezza Rice joining the Trump administration by April 30, driven by the absence of any official nomination, appointment, or substantive rumors two-and-a-half months into the term, with most cabinet slots filled amid recent changes like Markwayne Mullin's ascension to Homeland Security Secretary. Rice's March White House visits, amid Iran tensions where she advised "neutering" military capabilities, were informal consultations from her ex-Secretary of State perch, not indicators of a roster move, as she remains entrenched as Stanford's Denning Professor and Hoover Institution director with active 2026 commitments. High confidence stems from Trump's preference for loyalist starters over Bush-era veterans, though a sudden vacancy in a key spot like national security advisor could spark a late-game Hail Mary shift before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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