High trader confidence in "No" at 92.5% stems from the absence of verifiable invasion preparations by China's People's Liberation Army, such as mass amphibious mobilizations or logistical buildups across the Taiwan Strait, despite routine military drills like Joint Sword-2024B in October following Taiwan President Lai Ching-te's National Day speech. Official Chinese statements prioritize "peaceful reunification" over force, while U.S. arms sales, alliances like AUKUS, and economic interdependence deter escalation amid PLA readiness gaps projected into the late 2020s. Recent cross-strait gray-zone tactics show coercion without kinetic shifts, aligning with expert base rates of low pre-2027 invasion risk and reinforcing market consensus on sustained status quo stability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$82,839 Vol.
$82,839 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
はい
$82,839 Vol.
$82,839 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
音量
$82,839終了日
Sep 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$82,839終了日
Sep 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...High trader confidence in "No" at 92.5% stems from the absence of verifiable invasion preparations by China's People's Liberation Army, such as mass amphibious mobilizations or logistical buildups across the Taiwan Strait, despite routine military drills like Joint Sword-2024B in October following Taiwan President Lai Ching-te's National Day speech. Official Chinese statements prioritize "peaceful reunification" over force, while U.S. arms sales, alliances like AUKUS, and economic interdependence deter escalation amid PLA readiness gaps projected into the late 2020s. Recent cross-strait gray-zone tactics show coercion without kinetic shifts, aligning with expert base rates of low pre-2027 invasion risk and reinforcing market consensus on sustained status quo stability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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