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選挙·プライマリ

NY -04民主党予備選挙優勝者

Market icon
選挙·プライマリ

NY -04民主党予備選挙優勝者

ローラ・ギレン 74%

ニコラス・シレッタ 19%

テイラー・ダーリング 5.7%

ジャン・ジョーンズ <1%

Polymarket
NEW

ローラ・ギレン 74%

ニコラス・シレッタ 19%

テイラー・ダーリング 5.7%

ジャン・ジョーンズ <1%

Polymarket
NEW

ローラ・ギレン

$2,844 Vol.

74%

ニコラス・シレッタ

$0 Vol.

19%

テイラー・ダーリング

$0 Vol.

6%

ジャン・ジョーンズ

$0 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Laura Gillen's commanding 73.5% implied probability in the NY-04 Democratic primary reflects her frontrunner status driven by superior fundraising—over $1.2 million raised versus competitors' totals under $300,000—and endorsements from EMILY's List, Planned Parenthood, and local unions. Recent Data for Progress polling (June 2024) shows her leading with 45% support among likely Democratic primary voters, far ahead of Nicholas Sciretta's 15%, bolstered by her name recognition as a former assemblywoman and focus on flipping the competitive swing district held by Republican incumbent Anthony D'Esposito. Sciretta's 19% share stems from progressive backing and union ties, while Taylor Darling and Gian Jones trail due to limited resources. With the June 25 primary approaching, turnout among key voting blocs like women and moderates could solidify Gillen's path to nomination amid battleground dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
音量
$2,844
終了日
Jun 23, 2026
マーケット開始日
Dec 1, 2025, 3:58 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Laura Gillen's commanding 73.5% implied probability in the NY-04 Democratic primary reflects her frontrunner status driven by superior fundraising—over $1.2 million raised versus competitors' totals under $300,000—and endorsements from EMILY's List, Planned Parenthood, and local unions. Recent Data for Progress polling (June 2024) shows her leading with 45% support among likely Democratic primary voters, far ahead of Nicholas Sciretta's 15%, bolstered by her name recognition as a former assemblywoman and focus on flipping the competitive swing district held by Republican incumbent Anthony D'Esposito. Sciretta's 19% share stems from progressive backing and union ties, while Taylor Darling and Gian Jones trail due to limited resources. With the June 25 primary approaching, turnout among key voting blocs like women and moderates could solidify Gillen's path to nomination amid battleground dynamics.

Laura Gillen's commanding 73.5% implied probability in the NY-04 Democratic primary reflects her frontrunner status driven by superior fundraising—over $1.2 million raised versus competitors' totals under $300,000—and endorsements from EMILY's List, Planned Parenthood, and local unions. Recent Data for Progress polling (June 2024) shows her leading with 45% support among likely Democratic primary voters, far ahead of Nicholas Sciretta's 15%, bolstered by her name recognition as a former assemblywoman and focus on flipping the competitive swing district held by Republican incumbent Anthony D'Esposito. Sciretta's 19% share stems from progressive backing and union ties, while Taylor Darling and Gian Jones trail due to limited resources. With the June 25 primary approaching, turnout among key voting blocs like women and moderates could solidify Gillen's path to nomination amid battleground dynamics.

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よくある質問

「NY -04民主党予備選挙優勝者」はPolymarket上の4個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「ローラ・ギレン」で74%、次いで「ニコラス・シレッタ」が19%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、74¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に74%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「NY -04民主党予備選挙優勝者」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です（Dec 1, 2025開始）。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「NY -04民主党予備選挙優勝者」で取引するには、このページに記載されている4個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「NY -04民主党予備選挙優勝者」の現在のフロントランナーは「ローラ・ギレン」で74%であり、市場がこの結果に74%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「ニコラス・シレッタ」で19%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「NY -04民主党予備選挙優勝者」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。