As of early April 2026, no countries have newly recognized Israel diplomatically in the past 30 days, leaving trader sentiment cautious for the June 30 deadline amid stalled normalization efforts. Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa stated two days ago that Israel backed out of relations at the last minute following Assad's ouster, dimming near-term prospects despite earlier U.S.-backed talks. Saudi Arabia has adopted a harsher tone, conditioning any Abraham Accords expansion on Palestinian statehood progress, with February reports signaling slipping momentum. Regional tensions, including the ongoing U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, further complicate breakthroughs, though post-Assad Syria and Gulf diplomacy remain key variables to watch before resolution.