Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns low implied probabilities to new diplomatic recognitions of Israel by June 30, 2026, with Lebanon leading at 17%, followed by Saudi Arabia and Venezuela at 10% each, reflecting no formal recognitions among holdouts since the market launched November 20, 2025. Early optimism from U.S. announcements hinting at Abraham Accords expansions faded without follow-through, as key non-recognizers like Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, and Pakistan maintain conditions tied to Palestinian statehood amid lingering Gaza and Lebanon tensions. Recent Israeli moves, such as appointing an envoy to Somaliland last week—condemned by Arab states—highlight diplomatic outreach but yield no breakthroughs. Upcoming summits or U.S. mediation could shift odds, though entrenched opposition persists.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$177,379 Vol.
北朝鮮
4%
キューバ
19%
サウジアラビア
11%
レバノン
17%
アフガニスタン
4%
イラク
4%
パキスタン
6%
シリア
11%
ベネズエラ
10%
チュニジア
3%
クウェート
6%
カタール
7%
インドネシア
5%
マレーシア
4%
バングラデシュ
7%
$177,379 Vol.
北朝鮮
4%
キューバ
19%
サウジアラビア
11%
レバノン
17%
アフガニスタン
4%
イラク
4%
パキスタン
6%
シリア
11%
ベネズエラ
10%
チュニジア
3%
クウェート
6%
カタール
7%
インドネシア
5%
マレーシア
4%
バングラデシュ
7%
An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Nov 20, 2025, 2:05 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns low implied probabilities to new diplomatic recognitions of Israel by June 30, 2026, with Lebanon leading at 17%, followed by Saudi Arabia and Venezuela at 10% each, reflecting no formal recognitions among holdouts since the market launched November 20, 2025. Early optimism from U.S. announcements hinting at Abraham Accords expansions faded without follow-through, as key non-recognizers like Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, and Pakistan maintain conditions tied to Palestinian statehood amid lingering Gaza and Lebanon tensions. Recent Israeli moves, such as appointing an envoy to Somaliland last week—condemned by Arab states—highlight diplomatic outreach but yield no breakthroughs. Upcoming summits or U.S. mediation could shift odds, though entrenched opposition persists.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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