**Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6-thinking model leads LMArena.ai's Text leaderboard (Style Control On) at 1504 Elo as of the March 26 update, powering its 78% implied probability of retaining the #1 spot by April 30.** This dominance follows Anthropic's early March launch of Claude Opus 4.6—the first to top multiple Chatbot Arena benchmarks—outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (1493 Elo, 3rd) and xAI's fresh Grok-4.20 beta (1491 Elo, 4th). Amid a March surge of rival releases from OpenAI's GPT-5.4 variants and others, trader sentiment hinges on Anthropic's competitive edge in reasoning and agentic tasks, though upcoming model drops from xAI or Google could narrow the gap before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Anthropic 78%
xAI 7.0%
Google 6%
OpenAI 2.9%
$639,360 Vol.
$639,360 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Anthropic
78%
xAI
7%
6%
OpenAI
3%
DeepSeek
2%
Mistral
1%
Alibaba
1%
Moonshot
1%
ByteDance
1%
Z.ai
1%
Amazon
1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 78%
xAI 7.0%
Google 6%
OpenAI 2.9%
$639,360 Vol.
$639,360 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Anthropic
$15,587 Vol.
78%
xAI
$126,195 Vol.
7%
$22,065 Vol.
6%
OpenAI
$60,702 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$219,950 Vol.
2%
Mistral
$61,424 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$6,416 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$58,259 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$6,267 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$24,700 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$25,554 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$5,889 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$6,352 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.**Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6-thinking model leads LMArena.ai's Text leaderboard (Style Control On) at 1504 Elo as of the March 26 update, powering its 78% implied probability of retaining the #1 spot by April 30.** This dominance follows Anthropic's early March launch of Claude Opus 4.6—the first to top multiple Chatbot Arena benchmarks—outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (1493 Elo, 3rd) and xAI's fresh Grok-4.20 beta (1491 Elo, 4th). Amid a March surge of rival releases from OpenAI's GPT-5.4 variants and others, trader sentiment hinges on Anthropic's competitive edge in reasoning and agentic tasks, though upcoming model drops from xAI or Google could narrow the gap before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ET
音量
$639,360終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.**Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6-thinking model leads LMArena.ai's Text leaderboard (Style Control On) at 1504 Elo as of the March 26 update, powering its 78% implied probability of retaining the #1 spot by April 30.** This dominance follows Anthropic's early March launch of Claude Opus 4.6—the first to top multiple Chatbot Arena benchmarks—outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (1493 Elo, 3rd) and xAI's fresh Grok-4.20 beta (1491 Elo, 4th). Amid a March surge of rival releases from OpenAI's GPT-5.4 variants and others, trader sentiment hinges on Anthropic's competitive edge in reasoning and agentic tasks, though upcoming model drops from xAI or Google could narrow the gap before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
音量
$639,360終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6-thinking model leads LMArena.ai's Text leaderboard (Style Control On) at 1504 Elo as of the March 26 update, powering its 78% implied probability of retaining the #1 spot by April 30.** This dominance follows Anthropic's early March launch of Claude Opus 4.6—the first to top multiple Chatbot Arena benchmarks—outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (1493 Elo, 3rd) and xAI's fresh Grok-4.20 beta (1491 Elo, 4th). Amid a March surge of rival releases from OpenAI's GPT-5.4 variants and others, trader sentiment hinges on Anthropic's competitive edge in reasoning and agentic tasks, though upcoming model drops from xAI or Google could narrow the gap before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問