Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet large language model, released June 20, has propelled it to 50.5% implied probability for second-best AI model by end of June, surging to #2 on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard behind OpenAI's GPT-4o after outperforming in coding, math, and vision benchmarks. Traders view this as sustained competitive positioning against frontrunner OpenAI, with Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro at 29.5% reflecting its consistent #3 ranking and multimodal strengths amid minor recent tweaks. xAI's Grok models trail at 9%, hampered by slower benchmark gains, while OpenAI's secondary models like o1-preview garner just 8.5% due to GPT-4o dominating #1. With June wrapping up, leaderboard volatility from user votes remains the key near-term catalyst.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Anthropic 50%
Google 28%
OpenAI 10%
xAI 8%
$163,582 Vol.
$163,582 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
50%
28%
OpenAI
10%
xAI
8%
DeepSeek
5%
ミストラル
2%
美団
2%
アリババ
1%
ムーンショット
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Anthropic 50%
Google 28%
OpenAI 10%
xAI 8%
$163,582 Vol.
$163,582 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
$3,737 Vol.
50%
$1,960 Vol.
28%
OpenAI
$30,505 Vol.
10%
xAI
$1,141 Vol.
8%
DeepSeek
$88,370 Vol.
5%
ミストラル
$660 Vol.
2%
美団
$30,179 Vol.
2%
アリババ
$1,003 Vol.
1%
ムーンショット
$1,565 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$4,463 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet large language model, released June 20, has propelled it to 50.5% implied probability for second-best AI model by end of June, surging to #2 on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard behind OpenAI's GPT-4o after outperforming in coding, math, and vision benchmarks. Traders view this as sustained competitive positioning against frontrunner OpenAI, with Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro at 29.5% reflecting its consistent #3 ranking and multimodal strengths amid minor recent tweaks. xAI's Grok models trail at 9%, hampered by slower benchmark gains, while OpenAI's secondary models like o1-preview garner just 8.5% due to GPT-4o dominating #1. With June wrapping up, leaderboard volatility from user votes remains the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
音量
$163,582終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet large language model, released June 20, has propelled it to 50.5% implied probability for second-best AI model by end of June, surging to #2 on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard behind OpenAI's GPT-4o after outperforming in coding, math, and vision benchmarks. Traders view this as sustained competitive positioning against frontrunner OpenAI, with Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro at 29.5% reflecting its consistent #3 ranking and multimodal strengths amid minor recent tweaks. xAI's Grok models trail at 9%, hampered by slower benchmark gains, while OpenAI's secondary models like o1-preview garner just 8.5% due to GPT-4o dominating #1. With June wrapping up, leaderboard volatility from user votes remains the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
音量
$163,582終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet large language model, released June 20, has propelled it to 50.5% implied probability for second-best AI model by end of June, surging to #2 on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard behind OpenAI's GPT-4o after outperforming in coding, math, and vision benchmarks. Traders view this as sustained competitive positioning against frontrunner OpenAI, with Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro at 29.5% reflecting its consistent #3 ranking and multimodal strengths amid minor recent tweaks. xAI's Grok models trail at 9%, hampered by slower benchmark gains, while OpenAI's secondary models like o1-preview garner just 8.5% due to GPT-4o dominating #1. With June wrapping up, leaderboard volatility from user votes remains the key near-term catalyst.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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