Trader consensus on Polymarket gives OpenAI the highest implied probability at 29% of topping the Chatbot Arena leaderboard like LMSYS or llm-stats by June 30, driven by expectations of a flagship GPT-5.x upgrade amid escalating competition. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 seized the #1 spot on llm-stats Chat Arena as of March 28, surpassing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro and OpenAI's GPT-5.4, following a frenzy of 12 major model releases in mid-March from labs including xAI's Grok-4 and Zhipu AI's GLM-5. xAI follows at 16% on promises of compute scaling via Colossus, while Chinese challengers like DeepSeek and Alibaba's Qwen gain traction at 8% each. Traders eye imminent drops before summer conferences, where capability jumps on benchmarks like Elo ratings could flip rankings rapidly.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$1,165,401 Vol.

OpenAI
29%

xAI
16%

DeepSeek
8%

アリババ
8%

Meta
6%

Z.ai
5%

バイドゥ
4%

Mistral
4%

Nvidia
3%

Meituan
3%
$1,165,401 Vol.

OpenAI
29%

xAI
16%

DeepSeek
8%

アリババ
8%

Meta
6%

Z.ai
5%

バイドゥ
4%

Mistral
4%

Nvidia
3%

Meituan
3%
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
マーケット開始日: Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket gives OpenAI the highest implied probability at 29% of topping the Chatbot Arena leaderboard like LMSYS or llm-stats by June 30, driven by expectations of a flagship GPT-5.x upgrade amid escalating competition. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 seized the #1 spot on llm-stats Chat Arena as of March 28, surpassing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro and OpenAI's GPT-5.4, following a frenzy of 12 major model releases in mid-March from labs including xAI's Grok-4 and Zhipu AI's GLM-5. xAI follows at 16% on promises of compute scaling via Colossus, while Chinese challengers like DeepSeek and Alibaba's Qwen gain traction at 8% each. Traders eye imminent drops before summer conferences, where capability jumps on benchmarks like Elo ratings could flip rankings rapidly.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問