Trader consensus strongly favors no Zelenskyy-Putin meeting before 2027 at 82%, reflecting the entrenched diplomatic standoff and lack of Russian reciprocation amid ongoing military stalemate in Ukraine. Zelenskyy's April 4 meeting with Turkish President Erdogan in Ankara—where he expressed readiness for direct talks "in any format" and endorsed Istanbul as a venue for the tenth time—briefly boosted Turkey's odds to 2.6%, but Moscow dismissed similar initiatives, insisting on Ukrainian territorial concessions and labeling Zelenskyy illegitimate without elections. Recent U.S.-brokered talks stalled in March after postponements, with Russian advances slowing and no Easter truce proposals advancing. Lower probabilities for Qatar/UAE (2.3%), U.S. (2.1%), and others stem from prior mediation offers lacking momentum, underscoring barriers like mutual ultimatums and no-confidence in de-escalation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日2027年以前に会談なし 82%
トルコ 2.7%
カタール / UAE 2.3%
米国 2.1%
$1,893,592 Vol.
$1,893,592 Vol.

2027年以前に会談なし
82%

トルコ
3%

カタール / UAE
2%

米国
2%

サウジアラビア
2%

ハンガリー
2%

ロシア
1%

スイス
1%

ベラルーシ
1%

中国
1%

インド
1%

イタリア/バチカン
1%

ウクライナ
1%

カザフスタン
1%
2027年以前に会談なし 82%
トルコ 2.7%
カタール / UAE 2.3%
米国 2.1%
$1,893,592 Vol.
$1,893,592 Vol.

2027年以前に会談なし
82%

トルコ
3%

カタール / UAE
2%

米国
2%

サウジアラビア
2%

ハンガリー
2%

ロシア
1%

スイス
1%

ベラルーシ
1%

中国
1%

インド
1%

イタリア/バチカン
1%

ウクライナ
1%

カザフスタン
1%
A meeting is defined as any encounter where Zelenskyy and Putin are both present and interact with each other in person.
For the purpose of this market, a meeting held on Ukrainian territory under the de facto control of Russia (e.g., Crimea) will be considered part of Russia.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日: Nov 6, 2025, 10:49 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...A meeting is defined as any encounter where Zelenskyy and Putin are both present and interact with each other in person.
For the purpose of this market, a meeting held on Ukrainian territory under the de facto control of Russia (e.g., Crimea) will be considered part of Russia.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus strongly favors no Zelenskyy-Putin meeting before 2027 at 82%, reflecting the entrenched diplomatic standoff and lack of Russian reciprocation amid ongoing military stalemate in Ukraine. Zelenskyy's April 4 meeting with Turkish President Erdogan in Ankara—where he expressed readiness for direct talks "in any format" and endorsed Istanbul as a venue for the tenth time—briefly boosted Turkey's odds to 2.6%, but Moscow dismissed similar initiatives, insisting on Ukrainian territorial concessions and labeling Zelenskyy illegitimate without elections. Recent U.S.-brokered talks stalled in March after postponements, with Russian advances slowing and no Easter truce proposals advancing. Lower probabilities for Qatar/UAE (2.3%), U.S. (2.1%), and others stem from prior mediation offers lacking momentum, underscoring barriers like mutual ultimatums and no-confidence in de-escalation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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