President Trump's recent rhetoric on escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, including Truth Social warnings against disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and March 27 remarks at the Saudi Future Investment Initiative in Miami touting U.S.-Israeli military actions, drives trader consensus toward Iran-focused phrases like "Khamenei," "paid a big price," and "embargo." A 10-day pause in strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure until April 6 overlaps the market window of March 29 to April 5, sustaining diplomatic-military focus despite no confirmed public events beyond likely press gaggles during Mar-a-Lago travel and executive time. Traders price competitive probabilities below 20% across outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in Trump's exact phrasing amid his pattern of repetitive foreign policy emphasis.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$470,179 Vol.
Mar 29, 2026
Paid a big price / Paying a big price
16%
Kaitlan Collins
4%
Eat our Lunch
7%
Ethanol
10%
Embargo
14%
Finish the Job
27%
Khamenei
9%
Chuck Norris
2%
$470,179 Vol.
Paid a big price / Paying a big price
$15,223 Vol.
16%
Kaitlan Collins
$4,240 Vol.
4%
Eat our Lunch
$1,485 Vol.
7%
Ethanol
$10,902 Vol.
10%
Embargo
$8,426 Vol.
14%
Finish the Job
$3,548 Vol.
27%
Khamenei
$52,517 Vol.
9%
Chuck Norris
$7,296 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 23, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.President Trump's recent rhetoric on escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, including Truth Social warnings against disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and March 27 remarks at the Saudi Future Investment Initiative in Miami touting U.S.-Israeli military actions, drives trader consensus toward Iran-focused phrases like "Khamenei," "paid a big price," and "embargo." A 10-day pause in strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure until April 6 overlaps the market window of March 29 to April 5, sustaining diplomatic-military focus despite no confirmed public events beyond likely press gaggles during Mar-a-Lago travel and executive time. Traders price competitive probabilities below 20% across outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in Trump's exact phrasing amid his pattern of repetitive foreign policy emphasis.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 23, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
マーケット開始日： Mar 20, 2026, 4:12 PM ET
音量
$470,179終了日
Mar 29, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 20, 2026, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: Yes
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 23, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.President Trump's recent rhetoric on escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, including Truth Social warnings against disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and March 27 remarks at the Saudi Future Investment Initiative in Miami touting U.S.-Israeli military actions, drives trader consensus toward Iran-focused phrases like "Khamenei," "paid a big price," and "embargo." A 10-day pause in strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure until April 6 overlaps the market window of March 29 to April 5, sustaining diplomatic-military focus despite no confirmed public events beyond likely press gaggles during Mar-a-Lago travel and executive time. Traders price competitive probabilities below 20% across outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in Trump's exact phrasing amid his pattern of repetitive foreign policy emphasis.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 23, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
音量
$470,179終了日
Mar 29, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 20, 2026, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: Yes
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: Yes
President Trump's recent rhetoric on escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, including Truth Social warnings against disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and March 27 remarks at the Saudi Future Investment Initiative in Miami touting U.S.-Israeli military actions, drives trader consensus toward Iran-focused phrases like "Khamenei," "paid a big price," and "embargo." A 10-day pause in strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure until April 6 overlaps the market window of March 29 to April 5, sustaining diplomatic-military focus despite no confirmed public events beyond likely press gaggles during Mar-a-Lago travel and executive time. Traders price competitive probabilities below 20% across outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in Trump's exact phrasing amid his pattern of repetitive foreign policy emphasis.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問