President Trump's recent Truth Social posts warning Iran against disrupting oil flows in the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with his March 27 remarks at the Saudi Future Investment Initiative touting U.S.-Israeli military actions reshaping the Middle East, have elevated trader consensus probabilities for Iran-related phrases like "Khamenei" (19%), "embargo" (24%), and "finish the job" (22%) in this market tracking mentions from March 29 to April 5. A pause in planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure until after April 6 adds uncertainty, while no public events are scheduled during his Mar-a-Lago weekend stay, leaving room for unscheduled posts or press gaggles to influence outcomes amid broader geopolitical tensions. Traders reflect skin-in-the-game bets on continued focus, with volumes exceeding $460,000 across 32 terms.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$476,399 Vol.
Mar 29, 2026
Paid a big price / Paying a big price
16%
Kaitlan Collins
3%
Eat our Lunch
5%
Ethanol
3%
Embargo
11%
Finish the Job
13%
Khamenei
4%
Chuck Norris
2%
$476,399 Vol.
Paid a big price / Paying a big price
$15,741 Vol.
16%
Kaitlan Collins
$4,576 Vol.
3%
Eat our Lunch
$1,913 Vol.
5%
Ethanol
$11,636 Vol.
3%
Embargo
$8,781 Vol.
11%
Finish the Job
$3,890 Vol.
13%
Khamenei
$53,979 Vol.
4%
Chuck Norris
$9,341 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 23, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.President Trump's recent Truth Social posts warning Iran against disrupting oil flows in the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with his March 27 remarks at the Saudi Future Investment Initiative touting U.S.-Israeli military actions reshaping the Middle East, have elevated trader consensus probabilities for Iran-related phrases like "Khamenei" (19%), "embargo" (24%), and "finish the job" (22%) in this market tracking mentions from March 29 to April 5. A pause in planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure until after April 6 adds uncertainty, while no public events are scheduled during his Mar-a-Lago weekend stay, leaving room for unscheduled posts or press gaggles to influence outcomes amid broader geopolitical tensions. Traders reflect skin-in-the-game bets on continued focus, with volumes exceeding $460,000 across 32 terms.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 23, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
マーケット開始日： Mar 20, 2026, 4:12 PM ET
音量
$476,399終了日
Mar 29, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 20, 2026, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 23, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.President Trump's recent Truth Social posts warning Iran against disrupting oil flows in the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with his March 27 remarks at the Saudi Future Investment Initiative touting U.S.-Israeli military actions reshaping the Middle East, have elevated trader consensus probabilities for Iran-related phrases like "Khamenei" (19%), "embargo" (24%), and "finish the job" (22%) in this market tracking mentions from March 29 to April 5. A pause in planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure until after April 6 adds uncertainty, while no public events are scheduled during his Mar-a-Lago weekend stay, leaving room for unscheduled posts or press gaggles to influence outcomes amid broader geopolitical tensions. Traders reflect skin-in-the-game bets on continued focus, with volumes exceeding $460,000 across 32 terms.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 23, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
音量
$476,399終了日
Mar 29, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 20, 2026, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's recent Truth Social posts warning Iran against disrupting oil flows in the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with his March 27 remarks at the Saudi Future Investment Initiative touting U.S.-Israeli military actions reshaping the Middle East, have elevated trader consensus probabilities for Iran-related phrases like "Khamenei" (19%), "embargo" (24%), and "finish the job" (22%) in this market tracking mentions from March 29 to April 5. A pause in planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure until after April 6 adds uncertainty, while no public events are scheduled during his Mar-a-Lago weekend stay, leaving room for unscheduled posts or press gaggles to influence outcomes amid broader geopolitical tensions. Traders reflect skin-in-the-game bets on continued focus, with volumes exceeding $460,000 across 32 terms.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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