One month into the US-Israel-Iran war sparked by Operation Roaring Lion strikes in late February 2026—which reportedly killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—Iran has retaliated with missile barrages targeting Israel and US bases across the region, including attacks toward Cyprus and Oman. Recent escalation includes Houthi missile strikes on Israel on March 28, the first from Yemen since the conflict began, amid Iran's efforts to maximize salvos per ISW assessments. President Trump postponed airstrikes on Iranian power and desalination plants after issuing ultimatums, while rejecting a US 15-point ceasefire proposal; traders weigh risks of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz or hitting Gulf energy infrastructure by April 30 amid ongoing diplomatic failures and proxy activations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$53,941 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Ras Laffan Industrial City
42%
Ras Tanura
40%
Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery
33%
Al Zour Refinery
27%
Habshan Field/Processing Complex
26%
Ruwais Refinery
26%
Ghawar Field
24%
East–West Pipeline
21%
Safaniya Field
20%
Khurais Field
20%
Abqaiq oil processing facility
18%
Leviathan Field
18%
Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center)
10%
Burj Khalifa
6%
$53,941 Vol.
Ras Laffan Industrial City
$11,492 Vol.
42%
Ras Tanura
$4,323 Vol.
40%
Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery
$3,612 Vol.
33%
Al Zour Refinery
$0 Vol.
27%
Habshan Field/Processing Complex
$6,235 Vol.
26%
Ruwais Refinery
$1,865 Vol.
26%
Ghawar Field
$549 Vol.
24%
East–West Pipeline
$4,928 Vol.
21%
Safaniya Field
$1,228 Vol.
20%
Khurais Field
$4,359 Vol.
20%
Abqaiq oil processing facility
$738 Vol.
18%
Leviathan Field
$1,511 Vol.
18%
Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center)
$12,723 Vol.
10%
Burj Khalifa
$380 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.One month into the US-Israel-Iran war sparked by Operation Roaring Lion strikes in late February 2026—which reportedly killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—Iran has retaliated with missile barrages targeting Israel and US bases across the region, including attacks toward Cyprus and Oman. Recent escalation includes Houthi missile strikes on Israel on March 28, the first from Yemen since the conflict began, amid Iran's efforts to maximize salvos per ISW assessments. President Trump postponed airstrikes on Iranian power and desalination plants after issuing ultimatums, while rejecting a US 15-point ceasefire proposal; traders weigh risks of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz or hitting Gulf energy infrastructure by April 30 amid ongoing diplomatic failures and proxy activations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
マーケット開始日： Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
音量
$53,941終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.One month into the US-Israel-Iran war sparked by Operation Roaring Lion strikes in late February 2026—which reportedly killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—Iran has retaliated with missile barrages targeting Israel and US bases across the region, including attacks toward Cyprus and Oman. Recent escalation includes Houthi missile strikes on Israel on March 28, the first from Yemen since the conflict began, amid Iran's efforts to maximize salvos per ISW assessments. President Trump postponed airstrikes on Iranian power and desalination plants after issuing ultimatums, while rejecting a US 15-point ceasefire proposal; traders weigh risks of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz or hitting Gulf energy infrastructure by April 30 amid ongoing diplomatic failures and proxy activations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
音量
$53,941終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...One month into the US-Israel-Iran war sparked by Operation Roaring Lion strikes in late February 2026—which reportedly killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—Iran has retaliated with missile barrages targeting Israel and US bases across the region, including attacks toward Cyprus and Oman. Recent escalation includes Houthi missile strikes on Israel on March 28, the first from Yemen since the conflict began, amid Iran's efforts to maximize salvos per ISW assessments. President Trump postponed airstrikes on Iranian power and desalination plants after issuing ultimatums, while rejecting a US 15-point ceasefire proposal; traders weigh risks of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz or hitting Gulf energy infrastructure by April 30 amid ongoing diplomatic failures and proxy activations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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