Escalating airstrikes define the US-Israel-Iran conflict, with Israel targeting Iranian nuclear facilities like Arak and Ardakan on March 27, prompting Iran's missile and drone retaliation against the US Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, injuring at least 10 service members. Tit-for-tat threats continue, as Tehran vows strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure and Israeli power plants in response to potential US attacks on its grid, while President Trump postponed such action by 10 days and proposed ceasefire terms Iran is reviewing. Hezbollah's rocket barrages on Israel and Houthi missile launches heighten risks, with Strait of Hormuz tensions underscoring trader focus on Iranian proxy or direct actions before April 30 amid uncertain diplomacy.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$53,042 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Ras Laffan Industrial City
52%
Ras Tanura
40%
Al Zour Refinery
27%
Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery
26%
Habshan Field/Processing Complex
26%
Ruwais Refinery
26%
Ghawar Field
25%
East–West Pipeline
20%
Khurais Field
20%
Safaniya Field
19%
Leviathan Field
18%
Abqaiq oil processing facility
17%
Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center)
11%
Burj Khalifa
6%
$53,042 Vol.
Ras Laffan Industrial City
$11,313 Vol.
52%
Ras Tanura
$4,317 Vol.
40%
Al Zour Refinery
$0 Vol.
27%
Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery
$3,163 Vol.
26%
Habshan Field/Processing Complex
$6,228 Vol.
26%
Ruwais Refinery
$1,865 Vol.
26%
Ghawar Field
$532 Vol.
25%
East–West Pipeline
$4,923 Vol.
20%
Khurais Field
$4,354 Vol.
20%
Safaniya Field
$1,228 Vol.
19%
Leviathan Field
$1,511 Vol.
18%
Abqaiq oil processing facility
$559 Vol.
17%
Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center)
$12,719 Vol.
11%
Burj Khalifa
$330 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Escalating airstrikes define the US-Israel-Iran conflict, with Israel targeting Iranian nuclear facilities like Arak and Ardakan on March 27, prompting Iran's missile and drone retaliation against the US Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, injuring at least 10 service members. Tit-for-tat threats continue, as Tehran vows strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure and Israeli power plants in response to potential US attacks on its grid, while President Trump postponed such action by 10 days and proposed ceasefire terms Iran is reviewing. Hezbollah's rocket barrages on Israel and Houthi missile launches heighten risks, with Strait of Hormuz tensions underscoring trader focus on Iranian proxy or direct actions before April 30 amid uncertain diplomacy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
マーケット開始日： Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
音量
$53,042終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Escalating airstrikes define the US-Israel-Iran conflict, with Israel targeting Iranian nuclear facilities like Arak and Ardakan on March 27, prompting Iran's missile and drone retaliation against the US Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, injuring at least 10 service members. Tit-for-tat threats continue, as Tehran vows strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure and Israeli power plants in response to potential US attacks on its grid, while President Trump postponed such action by 10 days and proposed ceasefire terms Iran is reviewing. Hezbollah's rocket barrages on Israel and Houthi missile launches heighten risks, with Strait of Hormuz tensions underscoring trader focus on Iranian proxy or direct actions before April 30 amid uncertain diplomacy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
音量
$53,042終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalating airstrikes define the US-Israel-Iran conflict, with Israel targeting Iranian nuclear facilities like Arak and Ardakan on March 27, prompting Iran's missile and drone retaliation against the US Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, injuring at least 10 service members. Tit-for-tat threats continue, as Tehran vows strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure and Israeli power plants in response to potential US attacks on its grid, while President Trump postponed such action by 10 days and proposed ceasefire terms Iran is reviewing. Hezbollah's rocket barrages on Israel and Houthi missile launches heighten risks, with Strait of Hormuz tensions underscoring trader focus on Iranian proxy or direct actions before April 30 amid uncertain diplomacy.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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