Incumbent Republican Governor Phil Scott holds a commanding lead in the Vermont gubernatorial race, with recent polling averages showing him ahead of Democratic challenger Esther Charlestin by roughly 30 points, such as a Vermont PBS/CVPS survey from early October indicating 58% to 28%. Scott's sustained high approval ratings around 60%, driven by his moderate stances on property taxes, abortion rights, and gun safety amid Vermont's deep-blue electorate, underpin trader consensus implying an 82.5% probability of his fifth term victory on November 5. Early voting began October 9, but no major shifts have emerged from the recent debate or campaign trail, reinforcing his historical dominance with margins exceeding 20 points in prior cycles since 2016. Democrats' 18.5% odds reflect the challenger's uphill path absent a late October surprise.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
83%
民主党
19%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$2,238 Vol.
83%
民主党
$5,063 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Governor Phil Scott holds a commanding lead in the Vermont gubernatorial race, with recent polling averages showing him ahead of Democratic challenger Esther Charlestin by roughly 30 points, such as a Vermont PBS/CVPS survey from early October indicating 58% to 28%. Scott's sustained high approval ratings around 60%, driven by his moderate stances on property taxes, abortion rights, and gun safety amid Vermont's deep-blue electorate, underpin trader consensus implying an 82.5% probability of his fifth term victory on November 5. Early voting began October 9, but no major shifts have emerged from the recent debate or campaign trail, reinforcing his historical dominance with margins exceeding 20 points in prior cycles since 2016. Democrats' 18.5% odds reflect the challenger's uphill path absent a late October surprise.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
音量
$7,301終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Governor Phil Scott holds a commanding lead in the Vermont gubernatorial race, with recent polling averages showing him ahead of Democratic challenger Esther Charlestin by roughly 30 points, such as a Vermont PBS/CVPS survey from early October indicating 58% to 28%. Scott's sustained high approval ratings around 60%, driven by his moderate stances on property taxes, abortion rights, and gun safety amid Vermont's deep-blue electorate, underpin trader consensus implying an 82.5% probability of his fifth term victory on November 5. Early voting began October 9, but no major shifts have emerged from the recent debate or campaign trail, reinforcing his historical dominance with margins exceeding 20 points in prior cycles since 2016. Democrats' 18.5% odds reflect the challenger's uphill path absent a late October surprise.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$7,301終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Governor Phil Scott holds a commanding lead in the Vermont gubernatorial race, with recent polling averages showing him ahead of Democratic challenger Esther Charlestin by roughly 30 points, such as a Vermont PBS/CVPS survey from early October indicating 58% to 28%. Scott's sustained high approval ratings around 60%, driven by his moderate stances on property taxes, abortion rights, and gun safety amid Vermont's deep-blue electorate, underpin trader consensus implying an 82.5% probability of his fifth term victory on November 5. Early voting began October 9, but no major shifts have emerged from the recent debate or campaign trail, reinforcing his historical dominance with margins exceeding 20 points in prior cycles since 2016. Democrats' 18.5% odds reflect the challenger's uphill path absent a late October surprise.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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