Amid the US-Iran war entering its second month, indirect diplomatic overtures via Pakistan—including a failed late-March push for an Islamabad meeting involving US envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf—have yielded no confirmed authorized negotiations by March 31, sustaining trader caution on near-term outcomes. President Trump's March 31 declaration of a US military withdrawal within two to three weeks, paired with a 15-point ceasefire proposal demanding Iran curb uranium enrichment and proxies, hints at de-escalation incentives, yet Tehran's foreign ministry denials of direct talks and retaliatory strikes on Gulf targets heighten risks. Stalled post-Geneva technical discussions underscore barriers, with potential high-level diplomacy hinging on military pauses and mediator breakthroughs.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$1,196,511 Vol.
2026/06/30
3月31日
<1%
4月10日
15%
4月30日
33%
6月30日
69%
$1,196,511 Vol.
3月31日
$739,420 Vol.
<1%
4月10日
$39,910 Vol.
15%
4月30日
$144,676 Vol.
33%
6月30日
$26,930 Vol.
69%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the US-Iran war entering its second month, indirect diplomatic overtures via Pakistan—including a failed late-March push for an Islamabad meeting involving US envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf—have yielded no confirmed authorized negotiations by March 31, sustaining trader caution on near-term outcomes. President Trump's March 31 declaration of a US military withdrawal within two to three weeks, paired with a 15-point ceasefire proposal demanding Iran curb uranium enrichment and proxies, hints at de-escalation incentives, yet Tehran's foreign ministry denials of direct talks and retaliatory strikes on Gulf targets heighten risks. Stalled post-Geneva technical discussions underscore barriers, with potential high-level diplomacy hinging on military pauses and mediator breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 12, 2026, 1:42 PM ET
音量
$1,196,511終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 12, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the US-Iran war entering its second month, indirect diplomatic overtures via Pakistan—including a failed late-March push for an Islamabad meeting involving US envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf—have yielded no confirmed authorized negotiations by March 31, sustaining trader caution on near-term outcomes. President Trump's March 31 declaration of a US military withdrawal within two to three weeks, paired with a 15-point ceasefire proposal demanding Iran curb uranium enrichment and proxies, hints at de-escalation incentives, yet Tehran's foreign ministry denials of direct talks and retaliatory strikes on Gulf targets heighten risks. Stalled post-Geneva technical discussions underscore barriers, with potential high-level diplomacy hinging on military pauses and mediator breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$1,196,511終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 12, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the US-Iran war entering its second month, indirect diplomatic overtures via Pakistan—including a failed late-March push for an Islamabad meeting involving US envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf—have yielded no confirmed authorized negotiations by March 31, sustaining trader caution on near-term outcomes. President Trump's March 31 declaration of a US military withdrawal within two to three weeks, paired with a 15-point ceasefire proposal demanding Iran curb uranium enrichment and proxies, hints at de-escalation incentives, yet Tehran's foreign ministry denials of direct talks and retaliatory strikes on Gulf targets heighten risks. Stalled post-Geneva technical discussions underscore barriers, with potential high-level diplomacy hinging on military pauses and mediator breakthroughs.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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