Trader consensus reflects a 77% implied probability against U.S. formal recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027, driven by the Trump administration's stalled 2025 peace proposals that floated de facto acceptance as part of Ukraine negotiations but yielded no executive action amid congressional pushback. Bipartisan legislation like S.1749 explicitly codifies non-recognition of Russia's 2014 annexation or other seized Ukrainian territory, reinforcing longstanding policy. Recent developments include President Zelenskyy's February 2026 rejection of Russian signals demanding U.S. acknowledgment—deemed unconstitutional by Kyiv—and ongoing frontline clashes reported by ISW through late March, with Russian offensives faltering and no ceasefire breakthrough. Absent a comprehensive diplomatic deal, traders see significant barriers persisting into year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$13,923 Vol.
$13,923 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
はい
$13,923 Vol.
$13,923 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus reflects a 77% implied probability against U.S. formal recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027, driven by the Trump administration's stalled 2025 peace proposals that floated de facto acceptance as part of Ukraine negotiations but yielded no executive action amid congressional pushback. Bipartisan legislation like S.1749 explicitly codifies non-recognition of Russia's 2014 annexation or other seized Ukrainian territory, reinforcing longstanding policy. Recent developments include President Zelenskyy's February 2026 rejection of Russian signals demanding U.S. acknowledgment—deemed unconstitutional by Kyiv—and ongoing frontline clashes reported by ISW through late March, with Russian offensives faltering and no ceasefire breakthrough. Absent a comprehensive diplomatic deal, traders see significant barriers persisting into year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 12:50 PM ET
音量
$13,923終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus reflects a 77% implied probability against U.S. formal recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027, driven by the Trump administration's stalled 2025 peace proposals that floated de facto acceptance as part of Ukraine negotiations but yielded no executive action amid congressional pushback. Bipartisan legislation like S.1749 explicitly codifies non-recognition of Russia's 2014 annexation or other seized Ukrainian territory, reinforcing longstanding policy. Recent developments include President Zelenskyy's February 2026 rejection of Russian signals demanding U.S. acknowledgment—deemed unconstitutional by Kyiv—and ongoing frontline clashes reported by ISW through late March, with Russian offensives faltering and no ceasefire breakthrough. Absent a comprehensive diplomatic deal, traders see significant barriers persisting into year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$13,923終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 77% implied probability against U.S. formal recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027, driven by the Trump administration's stalled 2025 peace proposals that floated de facto acceptance as part of Ukraine negotiations but yielded no executive action amid congressional pushback. Bipartisan legislation like S.1749 explicitly codifies non-recognition of Russia's 2014 annexation or other seized Ukrainian territory, reinforcing longstanding policy. Recent developments include President Zelenskyy's February 2026 rejection of Russian signals demanding U.S. acknowledgment—deemed unconstitutional by Kyiv—and ongoing frontline clashes reported by ISW through late March, with Russian offensives faltering and no ceasefire breakthrough. Absent a comprehensive diplomatic deal, traders see significant barriers persisting into year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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