Trader consensus prices "No" at 85% for US recognition of Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader in 2026, reflecting the Islamic Republic's resilience amid ongoing US-Israel airstrikes that began February 28, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior officials but failing to trigger full regime collapse. Khamenei's son, Mojtaba, was swiftly elected successor by the Assembly of Experts, stabilizing hardliner control despite domestic unrest and economic strain from the month-long conflict. Pahlavi's March 28 CPAC speech urging Trump to reject negotiations and "finish the job" drew conservative applause and highlighted his transition plans, yet President Trump has downplayed his viability, prioritizing military degradation over diplomatic recognition absent an opposition takeover. Escalating strikes and retaliation persist, with no imminent path to Pahlavi-led governance.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$466,176 Vol.
$466,176 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
はい
$466,176 Vol.
$466,176 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 85% for US recognition of Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader in 2026, reflecting the Islamic Republic's resilience amid ongoing US-Israel airstrikes that began February 28, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior officials but failing to trigger full regime collapse. Khamenei's son, Mojtaba, was swiftly elected successor by the Assembly of Experts, stabilizing hardliner control despite domestic unrest and economic strain from the month-long conflict. Pahlavi's March 28 CPAC speech urging Trump to reject negotiations and "finish the job" drew conservative applause and highlighted his transition plans, yet President Trump has downplayed his viability, prioritizing military degradation over diplomatic recognition absent an opposition takeover. Escalating strikes and retaliation persist, with no imminent path to Pahlavi-led governance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jan 5, 2026, 3:27 PM ET
音量
$466,176終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 5, 2026, 3:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 85% for US recognition of Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader in 2026, reflecting the Islamic Republic's resilience amid ongoing US-Israel airstrikes that began February 28, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior officials but failing to trigger full regime collapse. Khamenei's son, Mojtaba, was swiftly elected successor by the Assembly of Experts, stabilizing hardliner control despite domestic unrest and economic strain from the month-long conflict. Pahlavi's March 28 CPAC speech urging Trump to reject negotiations and "finish the job" drew conservative applause and highlighted his transition plans, yet President Trump has downplayed his viability, prioritizing military degradation over diplomatic recognition absent an opposition takeover. Escalating strikes and retaliation persist, with no imminent path to Pahlavi-led governance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$466,176終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 5, 2026, 3:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 85% for US recognition of Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader in 2026, reflecting the Islamic Republic's resilience amid ongoing US-Israel airstrikes that began February 28, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior officials but failing to trigger full regime collapse. Khamenei's son, Mojtaba, was swiftly elected successor by the Assembly of Experts, stabilizing hardliner control despite domestic unrest and economic strain from the month-long conflict. Pahlavi's March 28 CPAC speech urging Trump to reject negotiations and "finish the job" drew conservative applause and highlighted his transition plans, yet President Trump has downplayed his viability, prioritizing military degradation over diplomatic recognition absent an opposition takeover. Escalating strikes and retaliation persist, with no imminent path to Pahlavi-led governance.
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