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地政学·トランプ

米軍がイランに入国するのは... ？

Market icon
地政学·トランプ

米軍がイランに入国するのは... ？

$44,670,850 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$44,670,850 Vol.

Polymarket

3月31日

$30,841,414 Vol.

7%

4月30日

$6,531,937 Vol.

65%

12月31日

$5,224,189 Vol.

73%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Amid escalating US-Iran hostilities entering their second month, heavy US-Israel airstrikes targeted Tehran on March 29, striking residential areas and a university, while Iranian retaliation injured 12 US troops at Saudi Arabia's Prince Sultan Air Base on March 27, prompting new Pentagon casualty reports. The US has deployed 2,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division and thousands more reinforcements to the Gulf region, with discussions of ground operations to secure Iran's enriched uranium or strategic islands like Khark. Stalled negotiations, rejected cease-fire proposals, and deadlines for reopening the Strait of Hormuz fuel trader consensus on potential US ground entry, though no boots-on-the-ground incursion has materialized amid logistical challenges and ongoing air-naval dominance.

Amid escalating US-Iran hostilities entering their second month, heavy US-Israel airstrikes targeted Tehran on March 29, striking residential areas and a university, while Iranian retaliation injured 12 US troops at Saudi Arabia's Prince Sultan Air Base on March 27, prompting new Pentagon casualty reports. The US has deployed 2,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division and thousands more reinforcements to the Gulf region, with discussions of ground operations to secure Iran's enriched uranium or strategic islands like Khark. Stalled negotiations, rejected cease-fire proposals, and deadlines for reopening the Strait of Hormuz fuel trader consensus on potential US ground entry, though no boots-on-the-ground incursion has materialized amid logistical challenges and ongoing air-naval dominance.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Amid escalating US-Iran hostilities entering their second month, heavy US-Israel airstrikes targeted Tehran on March 29, striking residential areas and a university, while Iranian retaliation injured 12 US troops at Saudi Arabia's Prince Sultan Air Base on March 27, prompting new Pentagon casualty reports. The US has deployed 2,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division and thousands more reinforcements to the Gulf region, with discussions of ground operations to secure Iran's enriched uranium or strategic islands like Khark. Stalled negotiations, rejected cease-fire proposals, and deadlines for reopening the Strait of Hormuz fuel trader consensus on potential US ground entry, though no boots-on-the-ground incursion has materialized amid logistical challenges and ongoing air-naval dominance.

Amid escalating US-Iran hostilities entering their second month, heavy US-Israel airstrikes targeted Tehran on March 29, striking residential areas and a university, while Iranian retaliation injured 12 US troops at Saudi Arabia's Prince Sultan Air Base on March 27, prompting new Pentagon casualty reports. The US has deployed 2,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division and thousands more reinforcements to the Gulf region, with discussions of ground operations to secure Iran's enriched uranium or strategic islands like Khark. Stalled negotiations, rejected cease-fire proposals, and deadlines for reopening the Strait of Hormuz fuel trader consensus on potential US ground entry, though no boots-on-the-ground incursion has materialized amid logistical challenges and ongoing air-naval dominance.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「米軍がイランに入国するのは... ？」はPolymarket上の9個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「12月31日」で73%、次いで「4月30日」が65%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、73¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に73%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「米軍がイランに入国するのは... ？」は$44.7 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Jan 11, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「米軍がイランに入国するのは... ？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている9個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「米軍がイランに入国するのは... ？」の現在のフロントランナーは「12月31日」で73%であり、市場がこの結果に73%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「4月30日」で65%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「米軍がイランに入国するのは... ？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。