Ongoing Russian military advances in eastern Ukraine, including intensified assaults near Kharkiv and Donetsk amid daily missile barrages, underscore the absence of de-escalation needed for a peace deal by June 30. The June 15-16 Switzerland peace summit, boycotted by Russia, produced no breakthroughs, with Moscow reiterating demands for Ukrainian territorial concessions, demilitarization, and neutrality—positions firmly rejected by Kyiv, which insists on full troop withdrawal and security guarantees. Zelenskyy's recent proposals for a 30-day ceasefire tied to Russian pullbacks from recent gains have gone unanswered. With no direct negotiations scheduled and incompatible red lines persisting, traders' 90.5% consensus on "No" reflects the entrenched stalemate and short timeline barring late diplomatic miracles.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$64,571 Vol.
$64,571 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
はい
$64,571 Vol.
$64,571 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing Russian military advances in eastern Ukraine, including intensified assaults near Kharkiv and Donetsk amid daily missile barrages, underscore the absence of de-escalation needed for a peace deal by June 30. The June 15-16 Switzerland peace summit, boycotted by Russia, produced no breakthroughs, with Moscow reiterating demands for Ukrainian territorial concessions, demilitarization, and neutrality—positions firmly rejected by Kyiv, which insists on full troop withdrawal and security guarantees. Zelenskyy's recent proposals for a 30-day ceasefire tied to Russian pullbacks from recent gains have gone unanswered. With no direct negotiations scheduled and incompatible red lines persisting, traders' 90.5% consensus on "No" reflects the entrenched stalemate and short timeline barring late diplomatic miracles.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ET
音量
$64,571終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing Russian military advances in eastern Ukraine, including intensified assaults near Kharkiv and Donetsk amid daily missile barrages, underscore the absence of de-escalation needed for a peace deal by June 30. The June 15-16 Switzerland peace summit, boycotted by Russia, produced no breakthroughs, with Moscow reiterating demands for Ukrainian territorial concessions, demilitarization, and neutrality—positions firmly rejected by Kyiv, which insists on full troop withdrawal and security guarantees. Zelenskyy's recent proposals for a 30-day ceasefire tied to Russian pullbacks from recent gains have gone unanswered. With no direct negotiations scheduled and incompatible red lines persisting, traders' 90.5% consensus on "No" reflects the entrenched stalemate and short timeline barring late diplomatic miracles.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$64,571終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing Russian military advances in eastern Ukraine, including intensified assaults near Kharkiv and Donetsk amid daily missile barrages, underscore the absence of de-escalation needed for a peace deal by June 30. The June 15-16 Switzerland peace summit, boycotted by Russia, produced no breakthroughs, with Moscow reiterating demands for Ukrainian territorial concessions, demilitarization, and neutrality—positions firmly rejected by Kyiv, which insists on full troop withdrawal and security guarantees. Zelenskyy's recent proposals for a 30-day ceasefire tied to Russian pullbacks from recent gains have gone unanswered. With no direct negotiations scheduled and incompatible red lines persisting, traders' 90.5% consensus on "No" reflects the entrenched stalemate and short timeline barring late diplomatic miracles.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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