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政治·プライマリ

TX -18民主党予備選

Market icon
政治·プライマリ

TX -18民主党予備選

クリスチャン・メネフィー 86.6%

アル・グリーン 14.1%

アマンダ・エドワーズ <1%

グレッチェン・ブラウン <1%

Polymarket

$22,953 Vol.

クリスチャン・メネフィー 86.6%

アル・グリーン 14.1%

アマンダ・エドワーズ <1%

グレッチェン・ブラウン <1%

Polymarket

$22,953 Vol.

クリスチャン・メネフィー

$14,080 Vol.

82%

アル・グリーン

$3,873 Vol.

14%

アマンダ・エドワーズ

$2,409 Vol.

<1%

グレッチェン・ブラウン

$2,591 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus heavily favors Christian Menefee at 82% implied probability to win the Texas 18th Congressional District's Democratic primary runoff on May 26, driven by his first-place finish in the March 3 primary (around 49% to Al Green's 43%) and consistent polling leads, including a recent average showing him up 41%-35% across four surveys. Menefee, who won a January special election runoff to serve the unexpired term following Rep. Sylvester Turner's death, benefits from strong Q1 fundraising ($1 million raised, including $600,000 post-February) and momentum as a newer face in a redrawn, safely Democratic district pitting him against veteran Rep. Al Green, displaced by 2025 redistricting. Green's long congressional record since 2005 sustains his 14% share amid low expected runoff turnout, while others trail far behind after failing to advance.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
音量
$22,953
終了日
2026/05/26
マーケット開始日
Feb 4, 2026, 5:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus heavily favors Christian Menefee at 82% implied probability to win the Texas 18th Congressional District's Democratic primary runoff on May 26, driven by his first-place finish in the March 3 primary (around 49% to Al Green's 43%) and consistent polling leads, including a recent average showing him up 41%-35% across four surveys. Menefee, who won a January special election runoff to serve the unexpired term following Rep. Sylvester Turner's death, benefits from strong Q1 fundraising ($1 million raised, including $600,000 post-February) and momentum as a newer face in a redrawn, safely Democratic district pitting him against veteran Rep. Al Green, displaced by 2025 redistricting. Green's long congressional record since 2005 sustains his 14% share amid low expected runoff turnout, while others trail far behind after failing to advance.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
音量
$22,953
終了日
2026/05/26
マーケット開始日
Feb 4, 2026, 5:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「TX -18民主党予備選」はPolymarket上の4個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「クリスチャン・メネフィー」で82%、次いで「アル・グリーン」が14%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、82¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に82%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「TX -18民主党予備選」は$23Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Feb 4, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「TX -18民主党予備選」で取引するには、このページに記載されている4個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「TX -18民主党予備選」の現在のフロントランナーは「クリスチャン・メネフィー」で82%であり、市場がこの結果に82%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「アル・グリーン」で14%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「TX -18民主党予備選」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。