South Dakota's entrenched Republican dominance, with the GOP securing every gubernatorial election since 1978, underpins the trader consensus implying 94.5% odds for a Republican winner in the November 3 general election. Acting Gov. Larry Rhoden, who succeeded Kristi Noem after her January 2025 resignation, trails U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson (28%) in the latest Emerson College poll of likely Republican primary voters, followed by Toby Doeden (18%) and Jon Hansen (14%), with 23% undecided; three televised GOP primary debates kick off March 31 ahead of the June 2 primary. Democrats field party executive Dan Ahlers in a thin race, lacking competitive polling. A nominee-scarring scandal, primary runoff, or national Democratic surge could challenge GOP odds, though state history favors continuity.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
95%
民主党
4%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$4,163 Vol.
95%
民主党
$2,444 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.South Dakota's entrenched Republican dominance, with the GOP securing every gubernatorial election since 1978, underpins the trader consensus implying 94.5% odds for a Republican winner in the November 3 general election. Acting Gov. Larry Rhoden, who succeeded Kristi Noem after her January 2025 resignation, trails U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson (28%) in the latest Emerson College poll of likely Republican primary voters, followed by Toby Doeden (18%) and Jon Hansen (14%), with 23% undecided; three televised GOP primary debates kick off March 31 ahead of the June 2 primary. Democrats field party executive Dan Ahlers in a thin race, lacking competitive polling. A nominee-scarring scandal, primary runoff, or national Democratic surge could challenge GOP odds, though state history favors continuity.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
音量
$6,607終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.South Dakota's entrenched Republican dominance, with the GOP securing every gubernatorial election since 1978, underpins the trader consensus implying 94.5% odds for a Republican winner in the November 3 general election. Acting Gov. Larry Rhoden, who succeeded Kristi Noem after her January 2025 resignation, trails U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson (28%) in the latest Emerson College poll of likely Republican primary voters, followed by Toby Doeden (18%) and Jon Hansen (14%), with 23% undecided; three televised GOP primary debates kick off March 31 ahead of the June 2 primary. Democrats field party executive Dan Ahlers in a thin race, lacking competitive polling. A nominee-scarring scandal, primary runoff, or national Democratic surge could challenge GOP odds, though state history favors continuity.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$6,607終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...South Dakota's entrenched Republican dominance, with the GOP securing every gubernatorial election since 1978, underpins the trader consensus implying 94.5% odds for a Republican winner in the November 3 general election. Acting Gov. Larry Rhoden, who succeeded Kristi Noem after her January 2025 resignation, trails U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson (28%) in the latest Emerson College poll of likely Republican primary voters, followed by Toby Doeden (18%) and Jon Hansen (14%), with 23% undecided; three televised GOP primary debates kick off March 31 ahead of the June 2 primary. Democrats field party executive Dan Ahlers in a thin race, lacking competitive polling. A nominee-scarring scandal, primary runoff, or national Democratic surge could challenge GOP odds, though state history favors continuity.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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