Trader consensus gives Republicans an 80.5% implied probability of winning the South Carolina Senate seat in 2026, anchored by the state's entrenched Republican dominance (R+13 partisan voting index) and the incumbency edge of Lindsey Graham, who has signaled intent to run for re-election. No Democrat has won a South Carolina Senate race since 2004, with recent hypothetical matchups showing Graham leading by 20+ points amid weak Democratic recruiting and his superior fundraising. Absent a high-profile Republican primary upset—such as from challengers like state Rep. Adam Morgan—or a major scandal, the general election path favors the GOP incumbent. Primaries are slated for June 2026, with the contest shaped by South Carolina's reliable Republican turnout in federal races.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$13,289 Vol.
$13,289 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
81%
民主党
20%
$13,289 Vol.
$13,289 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$5,439 Vol.
81%
民主党
$7,850 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus gives Republicans an 80.5% implied probability of winning the South Carolina Senate seat in 2026, anchored by the state's entrenched Republican dominance (R+13 partisan voting index) and the incumbency edge of Lindsey Graham, who has signaled intent to run for re-election. No Democrat has won a South Carolina Senate race since 2004, with recent hypothetical matchups showing Graham leading by 20+ points amid weak Democratic recruiting and his superior fundraising. Absent a high-profile Republican primary upset—such as from challengers like state Rep. Adam Morgan—or a major scandal, the general election path favors the GOP incumbent. Primaries are slated for June 2026, with the contest shaped by South Carolina's reliable Republican turnout in federal races.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
音量
$13,289終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus gives Republicans an 80.5% implied probability of winning the South Carolina Senate seat in 2026, anchored by the state's entrenched Republican dominance (R+13 partisan voting index) and the incumbency edge of Lindsey Graham, who has signaled intent to run for re-election. No Democrat has won a South Carolina Senate race since 2004, with recent hypothetical matchups showing Graham leading by 20+ points amid weak Democratic recruiting and his superior fundraising. Absent a high-profile Republican primary upset—such as from challengers like state Rep. Adam Morgan—or a major scandal, the general election path favors the GOP incumbent. Primaries are slated for June 2026, with the contest shaped by South Carolina's reliable Republican turnout in federal races.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$13,289終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus gives Republicans an 80.5% implied probability of winning the South Carolina Senate seat in 2026, anchored by the state's entrenched Republican dominance (R+13 partisan voting index) and the incumbency edge of Lindsey Graham, who has signaled intent to run for re-election. No Democrat has won a South Carolina Senate race since 2004, with recent hypothetical matchups showing Graham leading by 20+ points amid weak Democratic recruiting and his superior fundraising. Absent a high-profile Republican primary upset—such as from challengers like state Rep. Adam Morgan—or a major scandal, the general election path favors the GOP incumbent. Primaries are slated for June 2026, with the contest shaped by South Carolina's reliable Republican turnout in federal races.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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