Trader consensus on Polymarket prices South Africa's 2026 annual CPI inflation in the 3.8-4.1% bin at 43.8% implied probability, closely trailed by 3.2-3.5% (33.1%) and >5.0% (34.8%), reflecting balanced debate between recent disinflation and upside risks. February 2026 headline CPI eased to 3.0%—matching core and the SARB's 3% target midpoint—driven by softer food (3.7%) despite housing/utilities at 4.8%, but the March MPC held repo rate at 6.75% while forecasting quarterly peaks at 4.0% in Q2 amid Middle East conflict-fueled oil at $78/barrel (up from $65 prior) and rand depreciation, yielding 3.7% annual 2026 CPI. Upside scenarios from prolonged war could exceed 5%, while persistent cooling favors sub-3.8%. Key catalysts: March CPI (April release), May MPC.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日3.8〜4.1％ 43.7%
4.7〜5.0％ 39%
4.1〜4.4％ 32%
2.6～2.9％ 8.9%
$19,241 Vol.
$19,241 Vol.
2027/01/20
2.6％未満
3%
2.6～2.9％
10%
2.9～3.2％
12%
3.2～3.5％
33%
3.5～3.8％
20%
3.8〜4.1％
44%
4.1〜4.4％
20%
4.4〜4.7％
5%
4.7〜5.0％
27%
>5.0％
35%
3.8〜4.1％ 43.7%
4.7〜5.0％ 39%
4.1〜4.4％ 32%
2.6～2.9％ 8.9%
$19,241 Vol.
$19,241 Vol.
2027/01/20
2.6％未満
$0 Vol.
3%
2.6～2.9％
$0 Vol.
10%
2.9～3.2％
$0 Vol.
12%
3.2～3.5％
$0 Vol.
33%
3.5～3.8％
$428 Vol.
20%
3.8〜4.1％
$633 Vol.
44%
4.1〜4.4％
$0 Vol.
20%
4.4〜4.7％
$12,058 Vol.
5%
4.7〜5.0％
$318 Vol.
27%
>5.0％
$5,804 Vol.
35%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874Trader consensus on Polymarket prices South Africa's 2026 annual CPI inflation in the 3.8-4.1% bin at 43.8% implied probability, closely trailed by 3.2-3.5% (33.1%) and >5.0% (34.8%), reflecting balanced debate between recent disinflation and upside risks. February 2026 headline CPI eased to 3.0%—matching core and the SARB's 3% target midpoint—driven by softer food (3.7%) despite housing/utilities at 4.8%, but the March MPC held repo rate at 6.75% while forecasting quarterly peaks at 4.0% in Q2 amid Middle East conflict-fueled oil at $78/barrel (up from $65 prior) and rand depreciation, yielding 3.7% annual 2026 CPI. Upside scenarios from prolonged war could exceed 5%, while persistent cooling favors sub-3.8%. Key catalysts: March CPI (April release), May MPC.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
マーケット開始日： Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
音量
$19,241終了日
2027/01/20マーケット開始日
Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874Trader consensus on Polymarket prices South Africa's 2026 annual CPI inflation in the 3.8-4.1% bin at 43.8% implied probability, closely trailed by 3.2-3.5% (33.1%) and >5.0% (34.8%), reflecting balanced debate between recent disinflation and upside risks. February 2026 headline CPI eased to 3.0%—matching core and the SARB's 3% target midpoint—driven by softer food (3.7%) despite housing/utilities at 4.8%, but the March MPC held repo rate at 6.75% while forecasting quarterly peaks at 4.0% in Q2 amid Middle East conflict-fueled oil at $78/barrel (up from $65 prior) and rand depreciation, yielding 3.7% annual 2026 CPI. Upside scenarios from prolonged war could exceed 5%, while persistent cooling favors sub-3.8%. Key catalysts: March CPI (April release), May MPC.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
音量
$19,241終了日
2027/01/20マーケット開始日
Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices South Africa's 2026 annual CPI inflation in the 3.8-4.1% bin at 43.8% implied probability, closely trailed by 3.2-3.5% (33.1%) and >5.0% (34.8%), reflecting balanced debate between recent disinflation and upside risks. February 2026 headline CPI eased to 3.0%—matching core and the SARB's 3% target midpoint—driven by softer food (3.7%) despite housing/utilities at 4.8%, but the March MPC held repo rate at 6.75% while forecasting quarterly peaks at 4.0% in Q2 amid Middle East conflict-fueled oil at $78/barrel (up from $65 prior) and rand depreciation, yielding 3.7% annual 2026 CPI. Upside scenarios from prolonged war could exceed 5%, while persistent cooling favors sub-3.8%. Key catalysts: March CPI (April release), May MPC.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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