Incumbent Republican Dan Meuser's path to reelection in Pennsylvania's 9th Congressional District anchors trader consensus at a commanding Republican lead, driven by the district's deep-red profile—former President Trump won it by 38 points in 2024—and Meuser's decisive 2-to-1 victory that year. Cook Political Report rates it as a safe Republican hold with Meuser poised to cruise, amid early Democratic primary entrants like Jenn Brothers and Rachel Wallace but no standout challengers emerging. With primaries likely in April, odds reflect historical incumbency advantages and weak Democratic performance in this northeast Pennsylvania battleground. Shifts could arise from a high-profile scandal, legal challenges, or a national Democratic wave, though structural barriers remain high.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
92%
民主党
8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$0 Vol.
92%
民主党
$0 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Dan Meuser's path to reelection in Pennsylvania's 9th Congressional District anchors trader consensus at a commanding Republican lead, driven by the district's deep-red profile—former President Trump won it by 38 points in 2024—and Meuser's decisive 2-to-1 victory that year. Cook Political Report rates it as a safe Republican hold with Meuser poised to cruise, amid early Democratic primary entrants like Jenn Brothers and Rachel Wallace but no standout challengers emerging. With primaries likely in April, odds reflect historical incumbency advantages and weak Democratic performance in this northeast Pennsylvania battleground. Shifts could arise from a high-profile scandal, legal challenges, or a national Democratic wave, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$0終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Dan Meuser's path to reelection in Pennsylvania's 9th Congressional District anchors trader consensus at a commanding Republican lead, driven by the district's deep-red profile—former President Trump won it by 38 points in 2024—and Meuser's decisive 2-to-1 victory that year. Cook Political Report rates it as a safe Republican hold with Meuser poised to cruise, amid early Democratic primary entrants like Jenn Brothers and Rachel Wallace but no standout challengers emerging. With primaries likely in April, odds reflect historical incumbency advantages and weak Democratic performance in this northeast Pennsylvania battleground. Shifts could arise from a high-profile scandal, legal challenges, or a national Democratic wave, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$0終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Dan Meuser's path to reelection in Pennsylvania's 9th Congressional District anchors trader consensus at a commanding Republican lead, driven by the district's deep-red profile—former President Trump won it by 38 points in 2024—and Meuser's decisive 2-to-1 victory that year. Cook Political Report rates it as a safe Republican hold with Meuser poised to cruise, amid early Democratic primary entrants like Jenn Brothers and Rachel Wallace but no standout challengers emerging. With primaries likely in April, odds reflect historical incumbency advantages and weak Democratic performance in this northeast Pennsylvania battleground. Shifts could arise from a high-profile scandal, legal challenges, or a national Democratic wave, though structural barriers remain high.
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