Oklahoma's deep Republican lean, reflected in its R+17 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP Senate candidates in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus around a Republican victory in the November 2026 election. Markwayne Mullin's March 2026 resignation to join the Trump administration created an open seat filled by appointee Alan Armstrong, who is not seeking a full term, shifting focus to the June 16 Republican primary where Kevin Hern leads recent polling. A crowded Democratic primary offers little general-election threat in this environment. The implied probability could shift only in the event of a late Republican primary upset or unprecedented turnout surge, though such outcomes remain historically rare in the state.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$13,531 Vol.
$13,531 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
93%
民主党
7%
$13,531 Vol.
$13,531 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$8,234 Vol.
93%
民主党
$5,296 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oklahoma U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Oklahoma's deep Republican lean, reflected in its R+17 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP Senate candidates in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus around a Republican victory in the November 2026 election. Markwayne Mullin's March 2026 resignation to join the Trump administration created an open seat filled by appointee Alan Armstrong, who is not seeking a full term, shifting focus to the June 16 Republican primary where Kevin Hern leads recent polling. A crowded Democratic primary offers little general-election threat in this environment. The implied probability could shift only in the event of a late Republican primary upset or unprecedented turnout surge, though such outcomes remain historically rare in the state.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oklahoma U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
音量
$13,531終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oklahoma U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Oklahoma's deep Republican lean, reflected in its R+17 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP Senate candidates in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus around a Republican victory in the November 2026 election. Markwayne Mullin's March 2026 resignation to join the Trump administration created an open seat filled by appointee Alan Armstrong, who is not seeking a full term, shifting focus to the June 16 Republican primary where Kevin Hern leads recent polling. A crowded Democratic primary offers little general-election threat in this environment. The implied probability could shift only in the event of a late Republican primary upset or unprecedented turnout surge, though such outcomes remain historically rare in the state.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oklahoma U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$13,531終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Oklahoma's deep Republican lean, reflected in its R+17 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP Senate candidates in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus around a Republican victory in the November 2026 election. Markwayne Mullin's March 2026 resignation to join the Trump administration created an open seat filled by appointee Alan Armstrong, who is not seeking a full term, shifting focus to the June 16 Republican primary where Kevin Hern leads recent polling. A crowded Democratic primary offers little general-election threat in this environment. The implied probability could shift only in the event of a late Republican primary upset or unprecedented turnout surge, though such outcomes remain historically rare in the state.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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