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icon for NY -15民主党予備選挙優勝者
政治·プライマリ

NY -15民主党予備選挙優勝者

icon for NY -15民主党予備選挙優勝者
政治·プライマリ

NY -15民主党予備選挙優勝者

リッチー・トーレス 90%

マイケル・ブレイク 5.8%

ダローニー・ネモリン 2.3%

アマンダ・セプティモ <1%

Polymarket

$27,938 Vol.

リッチー・トーレス 90%

マイケル・ブレイク 5.8%

ダローニー・ネモリン 2.3%

アマンダ・セプティモ <1%

Polymarket

$27,938 Vol.

リッチー・トーレス

$3,773 Vol.

90%

マイケル・ブレイク

$2,872 Vol.

6%

ダローニー・ネモリン

$14,136 Vol.

2%

アマンダ・セプティモ

$7,158 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Ritchie Torres commands 90% trader consensus in the NY-15 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by his substantial fundraising edge—nearly $15 million cash on hand—and incumbency advantages in the heavily Democratic Bronx district. Former Assemblymember Michael Blake holds 5.8% implied probability, leveraging criticism of Torres' pro-Israel stance to appeal to progressive voters seeking greater Bronx focus. DSA organizer Dalourny Nemorin (2.4%) and Assemblymember Amanda Septimo (0.3%) linger at low odds following their respective campaign suspensions in April and January over logistical and health issues. The National Action Network's May 7 candidate forum, featuring Torres, Blake, and Jose Vega, highlighted local priorities like affordability without shifting market dynamics, as no public polls exist and historical incumbent reelection rates in safe seats exceed 90%. Late turnout surges or scandals could alter outcomes.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
音量
$27,938
終了日
2026/06/23
マーケット開始日
Nov 25, 2025, 3:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Ritchie Torres commands 90% trader consensus in the NY-15 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by his substantial fundraising edge—nearly $15 million cash on hand—and incumbency advantages in the heavily Democratic Bronx district. Former Assemblymember Michael Blake holds 5.8% implied probability, leveraging criticism of Torres' pro-Israel stance to appeal to progressive voters seeking greater Bronx focus. DSA organizer Dalourny Nemorin (2.4%) and Assemblymember Amanda Septimo (0.3%) linger at low odds following their respective campaign suspensions in April and January over logistical and health issues. The National Action Network's May 7 candidate forum, featuring Torres, Blake, and Jose Vega, highlighted local priorities like affordability without shifting market dynamics, as no public polls exist and historical incumbent reelection rates in safe seats exceed 90%. Late turnout surges or scandals could alter outcomes.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
音量
$27,938
終了日
2026/06/23
マーケット開始日
Nov 25, 2025, 3:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「NY -15民主党予備選挙優勝者」はPolymarket上の4個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「リッチー・トーレス」で90%、次いで「マイケル・ブレイク」が6%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、90¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に90%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「NY -15民主党予備選挙優勝者」は$27.9Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Nov 25, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「NY -15民主党予備選挙優勝者」で取引するには、このページに記載されている4個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「NY -15民主党予備選挙優勝者」の現在のフロントランナーは「リッチー・トーレス」で90%であり、市場がこの結果に90%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「マイケル・ブレイク」で6%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「NY -15民主党予備選挙優勝者」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。