Market icon
世界·中東

ネタニヤフは... ？

Market icon
世界·中東

ネタニヤフは... ？

Dec 31

Dec 31

$85,882,766 Vol.

Apr 30, 2026
Polymarket

$85,882,766 Vol.

Polymarket

3月31日

$78,852,814 Vol.

<1%

4月30日

$3,397,498 Vol.

3%

6月30日

$2,666,550 Vol.

14%

12月31日

$965,925 Vol.

46%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Knesset's narrow approval of Israel's record 2026 wartime state budget early Monday, backed by ultra-Orthodox coalition partners despite opposition filibusters, has stabilized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government and averted snap elections he polls suggest he would lose. This 11th-hour passage, amid an ongoing Iran conflict that has failed to boost his support, explains traders' low implied probabilities for near-term exit—around 1% by March 31 and 14% by June 30—while pricing a 46% chance by December 31, reflecting persistent coalition strains, poor polling, and scheduled legislative elections by October 27. Upcoming no-confidence votes or war escalations could still pressure the minority government.

The Knesset's narrow approval of Israel's record 2026 wartime state budget early Monday, backed by ultra-Orthodox coalition partners despite opposition filibusters, has stabilized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government and averted snap elections he polls suggest he would lose. This 11th-hour passage, amid an ongoing Iran conflict that has failed to boost his support, explains traders' low implied probabilities for near-term exit—around 1% by March 31 and 14% by June 30—while pricing a 46% chance by December 31, reflecting persistent coalition strains, poor polling, and scheduled legislative elections by October 27. Upcoming no-confidence votes or war escalations could still pressure the minority government.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Knesset's narrow approval of Israel's record 2026 wartime state budget early Monday, backed by ultra-Orthodox coalition partners despite opposition filibusters, has stabilized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government and averted snap elections he polls suggest he would lose. This 11th-hour passage, amid an ongoing Iran conflict that has failed to boost his support, explains traders' low implied probabilities for near-term exit—around 1% by March 31 and 14% by June 30—while pricing a 46% chance by December 31, reflecting persistent coalition strains, poor polling, and scheduled legislative elections by October 27. Upcoming no-confidence votes or war escalations could still pressure the minority government.

The Knesset's narrow approval of Israel's record 2026 wartime state budget early Monday, backed by ultra-Orthodox coalition partners despite opposition filibusters, has stabilized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government and averted snap elections he polls suggest he would lose. This 11th-hour passage, amid an ongoing Iran conflict that has failed to boost his support, explains traders' low implied probabilities for near-term exit—around 1% by March 31 and 14% by June 30—while pricing a 46% chance by December 31, reflecting persistent coalition strains, poor polling, and scheduled legislative elections by October 27. Upcoming no-confidence votes or war escalations could still pressure the minority government.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「ネタニヤフは... ？」はPolymarket上の4個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「12月31日」で46%、次いで「6月30日」が14%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、46¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に46%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「ネタニヤフは... ？」は$85.9 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Jul 24, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「ネタニヤフは... ？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている4個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「ネタニヤフは... ？」の現在のフロントランナーは「12月31日」で46%であり、市場がこの結果に46%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「6月30日」で14%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「ネタニヤフは... ？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。