US and Israeli airstrikes against Iranian military targets, including ballistic missile sites, command centers, and naval assets under Operation Epic Fury, continue unabated as of March 28, with the IDF reporting over 600 strikes since late February and recent hits on Tehran and Isfahan confirmed. Iranian missile barrages on Israel and Gulf states have caused limited damage, prompting no pause in coalition operations aimed at degrading Tehran's projection capabilities. Trader consensus at 94.5% for action through March 31 reflects this sustained escalation, failed diplomacy like Iran's rejection of a US 15-point plan, and CENTCOM statements signaling weeks-long timelines. A sudden ceasefire, diplomatic concession, or operational halt announcement could shift odds, though no such signals have emerged.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日3月31日までの軍事行動 95%
3月31日 2.4%
3月30日 <1%
3月29日 <1%
$2,660,230 Vol.
$2,660,230 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
3月29日
1%
3月30日
1%
3月31日
2%
3月31日までの軍事行動
95%
3月31日までの軍事行動 95%
3月31日 2.4%
3月30日 <1%
3月29日 <1%
$2,660,230 Vol.
$2,660,230 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
3月29日
$285,459 Vol.
1%
3月30日
$282,262 Vol.
1%
3月31日
$371,078 Vol.
2%
3月31日までの軍事行動
$573,544 Vol.
95%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes against Iranian military targets, including ballistic missile sites, command centers, and naval assets under Operation Epic Fury, continue unabated as of March 28, with the IDF reporting over 600 strikes since late February and recent hits on Tehran and Isfahan confirmed. Iranian missile barrages on Israel and Gulf states have caused limited damage, prompting no pause in coalition operations aimed at degrading Tehran's projection capabilities. Trader consensus at 94.5% for action through March 31 reflects this sustained escalation, failed diplomacy like Iran's rejection of a US 15-point plan, and CENTCOM statements signaling weeks-long timelines. A sudden ceasefire, diplomatic concession, or operational halt announcement could shift odds, though no such signals have emerged.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
音量
$2,660,230終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes against Iranian military targets, including ballistic missile sites, command centers, and naval assets under Operation Epic Fury, continue unabated as of March 28, with the IDF reporting over 600 strikes since late February and recent hits on Tehran and Isfahan confirmed. Iranian missile barrages on Israel and Gulf states have caused limited damage, prompting no pause in coalition operations aimed at degrading Tehran's projection capabilities. Trader consensus at 94.5% for action through March 31 reflects this sustained escalation, failed diplomacy like Iran's rejection of a US 15-point plan, and CENTCOM statements signaling weeks-long timelines. A sudden ceasefire, diplomatic concession, or operational halt announcement could shift odds, though no such signals have emerged.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$2,660,230終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
US and Israeli airstrikes against Iranian military targets, including ballistic missile sites, command centers, and naval assets under Operation Epic Fury, continue unabated as of March 28, with the IDF reporting over 600 strikes since late February and recent hits on Tehran and Isfahan confirmed. Iranian missile barrages on Israel and Gulf states have caused limited damage, prompting no pause in coalition operations aimed at degrading Tehran's projection capabilities. Trader consensus at 94.5% for action through March 31 reflects this sustained escalation, failed diplomacy like Iran's rejection of a US 15-point plan, and CENTCOM statements signaling weeks-long timelines. A sudden ceasefire, diplomatic concession, or operational halt announcement could shift odds, though no such signals have emerged.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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