One month into the US-Israeli war on Iran—sparked by surprise airstrikes on February 28, 2026, targeting nuclear sites, military infrastructure, and leadership—traders focus on escalating exchanges, including Iran's 80+ waves of missile and drone attacks on Israel and US bases, recent Houthi strikes on Israel, and new American casualties amid troop reinforcements. President Trump claims Iran is "being decimated" after over 10,000 US strikes, while Tehran reviews a US mediation proposal to end hostilities via third parties and faces a Strait of Hormuz access deadline. No ground invasion yet, but diplomatic signals and potential power plant strikes loom as key factors that could hasten or prolong military action.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$201,049 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 29
1%
March 30
2%
March 31
3%
4月15日
25%
4月30日
56%
5月31日
77%
6月30日
92%
$201,049 Vol.
March 29
$27,722 Vol.
1%
March 30
$22,335 Vol.
2%
March 31
$84,865 Vol.
3%
4月15日
$3,351 Vol.
25%
4月30日
$1,751 Vol.
56%
5月31日
$1,998 Vol.
77%
6月30日
$10 Vol.
92%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.One month into the US-Israeli war on Iran—sparked by surprise airstrikes on February 28, 2026, targeting nuclear sites, military infrastructure, and leadership—traders focus on escalating exchanges, including Iran's 80+ waves of missile and drone attacks on Israel and US bases, recent Houthi strikes on Israel, and new American casualties amid troop reinforcements. President Trump claims Iran is "being decimated" after over 10,000 US strikes, while Tehran reviews a US mediation proposal to end hostilities via third parties and faces a Strait of Hormuz access deadline. No ground invasion yet, but diplomatic signals and potential power plant strikes loom as key factors that could hasten or prolong military action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
音量
$201,049終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.One month into the US-Israeli war on Iran—sparked by surprise airstrikes on February 28, 2026, targeting nuclear sites, military infrastructure, and leadership—traders focus on escalating exchanges, including Iran's 80+ waves of missile and drone attacks on Israel and US bases, recent Houthi strikes on Israel, and new American casualties amid troop reinforcements. President Trump claims Iran is "being decimated" after over 10,000 US strikes, while Tehran reviews a US mediation proposal to end hostilities via third parties and faces a Strait of Hormuz access deadline. No ground invasion yet, but diplomatic signals and potential power plant strikes loom as key factors that could hasten or prolong military action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$201,049終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
One month into the US-Israeli war on Iran—sparked by surprise airstrikes on February 28, 2026, targeting nuclear sites, military infrastructure, and leadership—traders focus on escalating exchanges, including Iran's 80+ waves of missile and drone attacks on Israel and US bases, recent Houthi strikes on Israel, and new American casualties amid troop reinforcements. President Trump claims Iran is "being decimated" after over 10,000 US strikes, while Tehran reviews a US mediation proposal to end hostilities via third parties and faces a Strait of Hormuz access deadline. No ground invasion yet, but diplomatic signals and potential power plant strikes loom as key factors that could hasten or prolong military action.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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