US and Israeli airstrikes continue unabated against Iranian military infrastructure, with recent US strikes targeting the tallest bridge, Isfahan bunkers using 2,000-pound bombs, and other sites as recently as the past day, driving trader consensus toward prolonged conflict in this second-month war. President Trump's address three days ago reaffirmed objectives to destroy Iran's weapons factories, navy, air force, and nuclear capabilities, amid Iranian retaliatory missile barrages on Israel and US bases despite degraded drone and missile stocks. No ceasefire negotiations or de-escalation signals have emerged, while US intelligence warns Iran unlikely to ease its Strait of Hormuz restrictions soon; domestic polls show majority opposition to escalation. Key watchpoints include coalition naval moves and potential diplomatic interventions before mid-April deadlines.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$79,351 Vol.
2026/04/30
April 5
1%
April 6
<1%
April 7
3%
April 8
4%
April 9
3%
April 10
5%
April 11
5%
April 12
6%
April 13
7%
April 14
8%
April 15
9%
April 16
36%
April 17
43%
April 18
42%
April 19
45%
April 20
44%
April 21
43%
April 22
43%
April 23
44%
April 24
44%
April 25
29%
April 26
44%
April 27
45%
April 28
44%
April 29
47%
April 30
27%
$79,351 Vol.
April 5
$2,161 Vol.
1%
April 6
$6,943 Vol.
<1%
April 7
$921 Vol.
3%
April 8
$237 Vol.
4%
April 9
$2,904 Vol.
3%
April 10
$20 Vol.
5%
April 11
$16 Vol.
5%
April 12
$7 Vol.
6%
April 13
$0 Vol.
7%
April 14
$4,755 Vol.
8%
April 15
$180 Vol.
9%
April 16
$0 Vol.
36%
April 17
$0 Vol.
43%
April 18
$54 Vol.
42%
April 19
$1 Vol.
45%
April 20
$0 Vol.
44%
April 21
$0 Vol.
43%
April 22
$0 Vol.
43%
April 23
$0 Vol.
44%
April 24
$0 Vol.
44%
April 25
$2,777 Vol.
29%
April 26
$0 Vol.
44%
April 27
$39 Vol.
45%
April 28
$0 Vol.
44%
April 29
$1 Vol.
47%
April 30
$23,196 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes continue unabated against Iranian military infrastructure, with recent US strikes targeting the tallest bridge, Isfahan bunkers using 2,000-pound bombs, and other sites as recently as the past day, driving trader consensus toward prolonged conflict in this second-month war. President Trump's address three days ago reaffirmed objectives to destroy Iran's weapons factories, navy, air force, and nuclear capabilities, amid Iranian retaliatory missile barrages on Israel and US bases despite degraded drone and missile stocks. No ceasefire negotiations or de-escalation signals have emerged, while US intelligence warns Iran unlikely to ease its Strait of Hormuz restrictions soon; domestic polls show majority opposition to escalation. Key watchpoints include coalition naval moves and potential diplomatic interventions before mid-April deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
音量
$79,351終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes continue unabated against Iranian military infrastructure, with recent US strikes targeting the tallest bridge, Isfahan bunkers using 2,000-pound bombs, and other sites as recently as the past day, driving trader consensus toward prolonged conflict in this second-month war. President Trump's address three days ago reaffirmed objectives to destroy Iran's weapons factories, navy, air force, and nuclear capabilities, amid Iranian retaliatory missile barrages on Israel and US bases despite degraded drone and missile stocks. No ceasefire negotiations or de-escalation signals have emerged, while US intelligence warns Iran unlikely to ease its Strait of Hormuz restrictions soon; domestic polls show majority opposition to escalation. Key watchpoints include coalition naval moves and potential diplomatic interventions before mid-April deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$79,351終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli airstrikes continue unabated against Iranian military infrastructure, with recent US strikes targeting the tallest bridge, Isfahan bunkers using 2,000-pound bombs, and other sites as recently as the past day, driving trader consensus toward prolonged conflict in this second-month war. President Trump's address three days ago reaffirmed objectives to destroy Iran's weapons factories, navy, air force, and nuclear capabilities, amid Iranian retaliatory missile barrages on Israel and US bases despite degraded drone and missile stocks. No ceasefire negotiations or de-escalation signals have emerged, while US intelligence warns Iran unlikely to ease its Strait of Hormuz restrictions soon; domestic polls show majority opposition to escalation. Key watchpoints include coalition naval moves and potential diplomatic interventions before mid-April deadlines.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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