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気候と科学·科学

2026年3月温度上昇（º C ）

Market icon
気候と科学·科学

2026年3月温度上昇（º C ）

4月 10

4月 10

1.25〜1.29ºC 61.5%

>1.29ºC 23.7%

1.20～1.24ºC 13%

1.15〜1.19℃ 1.9%

Polymarket

$229,073 Vol.

1.25〜1.29ºC 61.5%

>1.29ºC 23.7%

1.20～1.24ºC 13%

1.15〜1.19℃ 1.9%

Polymarket

$229,073 Vol.

<1.10ºC

$29,527 Vol.

1%

1.10–1.14ºC

$33,347 Vol.

1%

1.15〜1.19℃

$53,630 Vol.

2%

1.20～1.24ºC

$40,045 Vol.

13%

1.25〜1.29ºC

$26,651 Vol.

62%

>1.29ºC

$45,873 Vol.

24%

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary ERA5 and Berkeley Earth analyses position March 2026's global surface air temperature anomaly around 1.25–1.29ºC above the pre-industrial (1850–1900) baseline, fueling 64% trader consensus on that outcome amid La Niña's cooling influence following 2024's El Niño records. February 2026 verified at 1.49ºC (Copernicus) and 1.55ºC (Berkeley Earth) confirms the moderation from March 2025's 1.55ºC and prior peaks exceeding 1.6ºC, driven by equatorial Pacific cold anomalies weakening residual heat. Stabilized aerosol forcing from shipping regulations adds baseline uncertainty. Finalized Copernicus (~April 8) and NOAA reports may refine binning, but ENSO-neutral transition forecasts support current market-implied odds.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
音量
$229,073
終了日
2026/04/10
マーケット開始日
Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary ERA5 and Berkeley Earth analyses position March 2026's global surface air temperature anomaly around 1.25–1.29ºC above the pre-industrial (1850–1900) baseline, fueling 64% trader consensus on that outcome amid La Niña's cooling influence following 2024's El Niño records. February 2026 verified at 1.49ºC (Copernicus) and 1.55ºC (Berkeley Earth) confirms the moderation from March 2025's 1.55ºC and prior peaks exceeding 1.6ºC, driven by equatorial Pacific cold anomalies weakening residual heat. Stabilized aerosol forcing from shipping regulations adds baseline uncertainty. Finalized Copernicus (~April 8) and NOAA reports may refine binning, but ENSO-neutral transition forecasts support current market-implied odds.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
音量
$229,073
終了日
2026/04/10
マーケット開始日
Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「2026年3月温度上昇（º C ）」はPolymarket上の6個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「1.25〜1.29ºC」で62%、次いで「>1.29ºC」が24%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、62¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に62%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「2026年3月温度上昇（º C ）」は$229.1Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Feb 28, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「2026年3月温度上昇（º C ）」で取引するには、このページに記載されている6個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「2026年3月温度上昇（º C ）」の現在のフロントランナーは「1.25〜1.29ºC」で62%であり、市場がこの結果に62%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「>1.29ºC」で24%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「2026年3月温度上昇（º C ）」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。