Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass holds a slight edge in trader consensus at 41% implied probability for the June 2 Los Angeles mayoral primary, driven by recent LA Times/Berkeley IGS polling showing her lead amid endorsements from nearly all county supervisors, yet tempered by majority unfavorable views tied to persistent homelessness and public safety concerns. Progressive City Councilmember Nithya Raman trails closely at 36.5%, gaining from her late entry as a former Bass ally pushing bolder police budget shifts and housing reforms, appealing to undecided voters in a field where over 50% remain uncommitted per Emerson surveys. Reality TV personality Spencer Pratt's 14% reflects wildcard outsider buzz, but the top-two runoff format keeps the race fluid ahead of debates and potential scandals that could consolidate support or erode Bass's incumbency advantage.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日カレン・バス 41%
ニティヤ・ラマン 37%
スペンサー・プラット 14%
レイ・ホアン 3.0%
$745,396 Vol.
$745,396 Vol.
カレン・バス
41%
ニティヤ・ラマン
37%
スペンサー・プラット
14%
レイ・ホアン
3%
ジーナ・ヴィオラ
2%
リック・カルーソ
1%
アサード・アルナッジャル
1%
アダム・ミラー
<1%
オースティン・ビュートナー
<1%
モニカ・ロドリゲス
<1%
リンジー・ホーヴァス
<1%
カレン・バス 41%
ニティヤ・ラマン 37%
スペンサー・プラット 14%
レイ・ホアン 3.0%
$745,396 Vol.
$745,396 Vol.
カレン・バス
41%
ニティヤ・ラマン
37%
スペンサー・プラット
14%
レイ・ホアン
3%
ジーナ・ヴィオラ
2%
リック・カルーソ
1%
アサード・アルナッジャル
1%
アダム・ミラー
<1%
オースティン・ビュートナー
<1%
モニカ・ロドリゲス
<1%
リンジー・ホーヴァス
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
マーケット開始日： Oct 9, 2025, 4:35 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass holds a slight edge in trader consensus at 41% implied probability for the June 2 Los Angeles mayoral primary, driven by recent LA Times/Berkeley IGS polling showing her lead amid endorsements from nearly all county supervisors, yet tempered by majority unfavorable views tied to persistent homelessness and public safety concerns. Progressive City Councilmember Nithya Raman trails closely at 36.5%, gaining from her late entry as a former Bass ally pushing bolder police budget shifts and housing reforms, appealing to undecided voters in a field where over 50% remain uncommitted per Emerson surveys. Reality TV personality Spencer Pratt's 14% reflects wildcard outsider buzz, but the top-two runoff format keeps the race fluid ahead of debates and potential scandals that could consolidate support or erode Bass's incumbency advantage.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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