Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, elected in January 2025 after a two-year parliamentary deadlock, maintains a firm hold on office amid escalating border tensions with Israel and internal pressures from Hezbollah. Recent developments, including his March 3 declaration that the ban on Hezbollah's military activities is irreversible, calls for direct negotiations with Israel on March 16, and criticisms of Hezbollah rocket attacks on March 9, underscore his assertive leadership in asserting state monopoly on arms and pursuing ceasefires. With no indications of resignation, impeachment proceedings, or snap elections—despite public backlash and Israeli strikes—traders price an 79% implied probability he remains president through December 31, 2026, reflecting consensus on his term stability until 2031 barring unforeseen crises.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Joseph Aoun and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, elected in January 2025 after a two-year parliamentary deadlock, maintains a firm hold on office amid escalating border tensions with Israel and internal pressures from Hezbollah. Recent developments, including his March 3 declaration that the ban on Hezbollah's military activities is irreversible, calls for direct negotiations with Israel on March 16, and criticisms of Hezbollah rocket attacks on March 9, underscore his assertive leadership in asserting state monopoly on arms and pursuing ceasefires. With no indications of resignation, impeachment proceedings, or snap elections—despite public backlash and Israeli strikes—traders price an 79% implied probability he remains president through December 31, 2026, reflecting consensus on his term stability until 2031 barring unforeseen crises.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Joseph Aoun and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Joseph Aoun and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 19, 2026, 2:02 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Joseph Aoun and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, elected in January 2025 after a two-year parliamentary deadlock, maintains a firm hold on office amid escalating border tensions with Israel and internal pressures from Hezbollah. Recent developments, including his March 3 declaration that the ban on Hezbollah's military activities is irreversible, calls for direct negotiations with Israel on March 16, and criticisms of Hezbollah rocket attacks on March 9, underscore his assertive leadership in asserting state monopoly on arms and pursuing ceasefires. With no indications of resignation, impeachment proceedings, or snap elections—despite public backlash and Israeli strikes—traders price an 79% implied probability he remains president through December 31, 2026, reflecting consensus on his term stability until 2031 barring unforeseen crises.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Joseph Aoun and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Joseph Aoun and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$0終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, elected in January 2025 after a two-year parliamentary deadlock, maintains a firm hold on office amid escalating border tensions with Israel and internal pressures from Hezbollah. Recent developments, including his March 3 declaration that the ban on Hezbollah's military activities is irreversible, calls for direct negotiations with Israel on March 16, and criticisms of Hezbollah rocket attacks on March 9, underscore his assertive leadership in asserting state monopoly on arms and pursuing ceasefires. With no indications of resignation, impeachment proceedings, or snap elections—despite public backlash and Israeli strikes—traders price an 79% implied probability he remains president through December 31, 2026, reflecting consensus on his term stability until 2031 barring unforeseen crises.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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