Following the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime, Syria's interim leadership under President Ahmed al-Sharaa has faced Israeli airstrikes and ground incursions into the Golan Heights buffer zone and southern Syria, aimed at neutralizing threats from Iranian-linked assets and securing borders. Recent developments, including Israel's March warnings against Syrian military movements near the Druze community and ongoing strikes condemned by Saudi Arabia on March 21, underscore persistent security tensions that have diminished earlier indirect talks from late 2025. No direct normalization negotiations have advanced in the past 30 days amid Syria's internal instability, Turkish influence, and al-Sharaa's prior statements ruling out deals. Traders weigh low probabilities due to these barriers, with potential shifts hinging on U.S.-brokered diplomacy or de-escalation signals before year-end deadlines.