President Trump's April 1 announcement that the US-Iran war could end in two to three weeks—even without a deal—marks the latest signal of potential de-escalation, as US-Israeli airstrikes continue targeting Iranian steel plants, pharmaceuticals, and infrastructure in Isfahan and Tehran, degrading Tehran's ballistic missile arsenal by over 85% since hostilities began February 28. Iran persists with sporadic missile barrages on Israel and Gulf allies, including a recent oil refinery strike, while maintaining partial control of the Strait of Hormuz amid a rejected 15-point US proposal delivered via Pakistan on March 25 demanding nuclear rollback, missile caps, and waterway reopening. Diplomatic channels remain active despite mutual ultimatums, with Trump's evening address anticipated to clarify timelines; traders weigh degraded Iranian capabilities against risks of proxy escalations by Houthis and Hezbollah.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$9,991,288 Vol.
2026/05/15
3月31日
<1%
4月15日
20%
4月7日
6%
4月30日
41%
5月15日
49%
6月30日
73%
12月31日
90%
$9,991,288 Vol.
3月31日
$4,724,756 Vol.
<1%
4月15日
$1,320,751 Vol.
20%
4月7日
$428,095 Vol.
6%
4月30日
$838,200 Vol.
41%
5月15日
$1,388,876 Vol.
49%
6月30日
$959,008 Vol.
73%
12月31日
$331,608 Vol.
90%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.President Trump's April 1 announcement that the US-Iran war could end in two to three weeks—even without a deal—marks the latest signal of potential de-escalation, as US-Israeli airstrikes continue targeting Iranian steel plants, pharmaceuticals, and infrastructure in Isfahan and Tehran, degrading Tehran's ballistic missile arsenal by over 85% since hostilities began February 28. Iran persists with sporadic missile barrages on Israel and Gulf allies, including a recent oil refinery strike, while maintaining partial control of the Strait of Hormuz amid a rejected 15-point US proposal delivered via Pakistan on March 25 demanding nuclear rollback, missile caps, and waterway reopening. Diplomatic channels remain active despite mutual ultimatums, with Trump's evening address anticipated to clarify timelines; traders weigh degraded Iranian capabilities against risks of proxy escalations by Houthis and Hezbollah.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
マーケット開始日： Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ET
音量
$9,991,288終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.President Trump's April 1 announcement that the US-Iran war could end in two to three weeks—even without a deal—marks the latest signal of potential de-escalation, as US-Israeli airstrikes continue targeting Iranian steel plants, pharmaceuticals, and infrastructure in Isfahan and Tehran, degrading Tehran's ballistic missile arsenal by over 85% since hostilities began February 28. Iran persists with sporadic missile barrages on Israel and Gulf allies, including a recent oil refinery strike, while maintaining partial control of the Strait of Hormuz amid a rejected 15-point US proposal delivered via Pakistan on March 25 demanding nuclear rollback, missile caps, and waterway reopening. Diplomatic channels remain active despite mutual ultimatums, with Trump's evening address anticipated to clarify timelines; traders weigh degraded Iranian capabilities against risks of proxy escalations by Houthis and Hezbollah.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
音量
$9,991,288終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's April 1 announcement that the US-Iran war could end in two to three weeks—even without a deal—marks the latest signal of potential de-escalation, as US-Israeli airstrikes continue targeting Iranian steel plants, pharmaceuticals, and infrastructure in Isfahan and Tehran, degrading Tehran's ballistic missile arsenal by over 85% since hostilities began February 28. Iran persists with sporadic missile barrages on Israel and Gulf allies, including a recent oil refinery strike, while maintaining partial control of the Strait of Hormuz amid a rejected 15-point US proposal delivered via Pakistan on March 25 demanding nuclear rollback, missile caps, and waterway reopening. Diplomatic channels remain active despite mutual ultimatums, with Trump's evening address anticipated to clarify timelines; traders weigh degraded Iranian capabilities against risks of proxy escalations by Houthis and Hezbollah.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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