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気候と科学·SpaceX

SpaceXスターシップの打ち上げは2026年に何回宇宙に到達しますか？

Market icon
気候と科学·SpaceX

SpaceXスターシップの打ち上げは2026年に何回宇宙に到達しますか？

Dec 31

Dec 31

5～6 37%

5未満 37%

7～8 14%

9〜10 9.3%

Polymarket

$340,227 Vol.

5～6 37%

5未満 37%

7～8 14%

9〜10 9.3%

Polymarket

$340,227 Vol.

5未満

$70,429 Vol.

37%

5～6

$80,522 Vol.

37%

7～8

$150,850 Vol.

14%

9〜10

$0 Vol.

9%

11〜12

$2,942 Vol.

5%

13～14

$3,647 Vol.

2%

15〜16

$23,563 Vol.

1%

>16

$8,275 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.As of late March 2026, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in SpaceX's Starship launch cadence, with market-implied odds nearly split between fewer than five orbital successes (36%) and five to six (37%), driven by persistent delays in Flight 12—the first attempted launch of the year—now targeting early April after multiple setbacks. Recent progress includes activation of Starbase's Pad 2 with a partial static fire of Booster 19's Raptor 3 engines and cryogenic tests on Ship 39, signaling advances toward version 3 reusability, but ground systems issues and FAA trajectory approvals have tempered optimism. Ambitious goals for 25 annual flights hinge on rapid booster/ship catches and refueling demos; Flight 12's outcome will be pivotal in breaking the deadlock, amid historical slips from 2025's 11 tests.

As of late March 2026, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in SpaceX's Starship launch cadence, with market-implied odds nearly split between fewer than five orbital successes (36%) and five to six (37%), driven by persistent delays in Flight 12—the first attempted launch of the year—now targeting early April after multiple setbacks. Recent progress includes activation of Starbase's Pad 2 with a partial static fire of Booster 19's Raptor 3 engines and cryogenic tests on Ship 39, signaling advances toward version 3 reusability, but ground systems issues and FAA trajectory approvals have tempered optimism. Ambitious goals for 25 annual flights hinge on rapid booster/ship catches and refueling demos; Flight 12's outcome will be pivotal in breaking the deadlock, amid historical slips from 2025's 11 tests.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.As of late March 2026, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in SpaceX's Starship launch cadence, with market-implied odds nearly split between fewer than five orbital successes (36%) and five to six (37%), driven by persistent delays in Flight 12—the first attempted launch of the year—now targeting early April after multiple setbacks. Recent progress includes activation of Starbase's Pad 2 with a partial static fire of Booster 19's Raptor 3 engines and cryogenic tests on Ship 39, signaling advances toward version 3 reusability, but ground systems issues and FAA trajectory approvals have tempered optimism. Ambitious goals for 25 annual flights hinge on rapid booster/ship catches and refueling demos; Flight 12's outcome will be pivotal in breaking the deadlock, amid historical slips from 2025's 11 tests.

As of late March 2026, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in SpaceX's Starship launch cadence, with market-implied odds nearly split between fewer than five orbital successes (36%) and five to six (37%), driven by persistent delays in Flight 12—the first attempted launch of the year—now targeting early April after multiple setbacks. Recent progress includes activation of Starbase's Pad 2 with a partial static fire of Booster 19's Raptor 3 engines and cryogenic tests on Ship 39, signaling advances toward version 3 reusability, but ground systems issues and FAA trajectory approvals have tempered optimism. Ambitious goals for 25 annual flights hinge on rapid booster/ship catches and refueling demos; Flight 12's outcome will be pivotal in breaking the deadlock, amid historical slips from 2025's 11 tests.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「SpaceXスターシップの打ち上げは2026年に何回宇宙に到達しますか？」はPolymarket上の8個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「5未満」で37%、次いで「5～6」が37%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、37¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に37%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「SpaceXスターシップの打ち上げは2026年に何回宇宙に到達しますか？」は$340.2Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Dec 12, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「SpaceXスターシップの打ち上げは2026年に何回宇宙に到達しますか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている8個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「SpaceXスターシップの打ち上げは2026年に何回宇宙に到達しますか？」の現在のフロントランナーは「5未満」で37%であり、市場がこの結果に37%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「5～6」で37%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「SpaceXスターシップの打ち上げは2026年に何回宇宙に到達しますか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。