Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors fewer than five ships successfully targeted by Iran by March 31, reflecting a mid-March lull in verified maritime strikes following at least 20 commercial vessel hits earlier in the conflict. Iranian IRGC Naval Forces shifted focus to missile barrages against Israel and cluster munitions after sustaining naval losses from US and Israeli airstrikes, including nine sunk vessels. Recent de-escalation includes Iran's March 22 IMO letter permitting coordinated passage for non-hostile ships through the Strait of Hormuz—26 have transited by March 25, some via a fee system—reducing attack incentives amid US strike pause extended to April 6. Challenges could arise from Houthi Red Sea escalation, failed Hormuz coordination, or confirmed strikes on US amphibious forces near Kuwait.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日<5 96%
5–7 2.8%
8–10 1.0%
20+ <1%
$60,876 Vol.
$60,876 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<5
96%
5–7
3%
8–10
1%
11–13
1%
14–16
<1%
17–19
<1%
20+
1%
<5 96%
5–7 2.8%
8–10 1.0%
20+ <1%
$60,876 Vol.
$60,876 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<5
$22,051 Vol.
96%
5–7
$5,788 Vol.
3%
8–10
$7,044 Vol.
1%
11–13
$2,965 Vol.
1%
14–16
$5,188 Vol.
<1%
17–19
$2,735 Vol.
<1%
20+
$15,105 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors fewer than five ships successfully targeted by Iran by March 31, reflecting a mid-March lull in verified maritime strikes following at least 20 commercial vessel hits earlier in the conflict. Iranian IRGC Naval Forces shifted focus to missile barrages against Israel and cluster munitions after sustaining naval losses from US and Israeli airstrikes, including nine sunk vessels. Recent de-escalation includes Iran's March 22 IMO letter permitting coordinated passage for non-hostile ships through the Strait of Hormuz—26 have transited by March 25, some via a fee system—reducing attack incentives amid US strike pause extended to April 6. Challenges could arise from Houthi Red Sea escalation, failed Hormuz coordination, or confirmed strikes on US amphibious forces near Kuwait.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 17, 2026, 5:41 PM ET
音量
$60,876終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 17, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors fewer than five ships successfully targeted by Iran by March 31, reflecting a mid-March lull in verified maritime strikes following at least 20 commercial vessel hits earlier in the conflict. Iranian IRGC Naval Forces shifted focus to missile barrages against Israel and cluster munitions after sustaining naval losses from US and Israeli airstrikes, including nine sunk vessels. Recent de-escalation includes Iran's March 22 IMO letter permitting coordinated passage for non-hostile ships through the Strait of Hormuz—26 have transited by March 25, some via a fee system—reducing attack incentives amid US strike pause extended to April 6. Challenges could arise from Houthi Red Sea escalation, failed Hormuz coordination, or confirmed strikes on US amphibious forces near Kuwait.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$60,876終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 17, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors fewer than five ships successfully targeted by Iran by March 31, reflecting a mid-March lull in verified maritime strikes following at least 20 commercial vessel hits earlier in the conflict. Iranian IRGC Naval Forces shifted focus to missile barrages against Israel and cluster munitions after sustaining naval losses from US and Israeli airstrikes, including nine sunk vessels. Recent de-escalation includes Iran's March 22 IMO letter permitting coordinated passage for non-hostile ships through the Strait of Hormuz—26 have transited by March 25, some via a fee system—reducing attack incentives amid US strike pause extended to April 6. Challenges could arise from Houthi Red Sea escalation, failed Hormuz coordination, or confirmed strikes on US amphibious forces near Kuwait.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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