Trader consensus on Polymarket prices fewer than two ships successfully targeted by Iran or its proxies by April 30 at 62.5%, driven by sparse confirmed hits amid the month-old US-Israeli war with Iran despite escalation signals. Iran-backed Houthis fired ballistic missiles and drones at Israel on March 28—their first direct attacks since the conflict erupted—prompting fears of renewed Red Sea or Strait of Hormuz strikes, but no vessels have been hit since early March incidents, including three targeted near UAE/Oman/Dubai waters (one catching fire) and the US-linked Chios Lion tanker struck by uncrewed surface vessels. A prior US-Houthi truce curbed shipping attacks until these developments, while robust US naval interceptions and diplomatic pressures limit further successes ahead of potential ceasefire talks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日<2 63%
2–3 16%
6–7 12%
8–9 10%
$10,965 Vol.
$10,965 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
<2
63%
2–3
16%
4–5
9%
6–7
12%
8–9
10%
10+
7%
<2 63%
2–3 16%
6–7 12%
8–9 10%
$10,965 Vol.
$10,965 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
<2
$1,992 Vol.
63%
2–3
$1,838 Vol.
16%
4–5
$0 Vol.
9%
6–7
$2,100 Vol.
12%
8–9
$4,879 Vol.
10%
10+
$156 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices fewer than two ships successfully targeted by Iran or its proxies by April 30 at 62.5%, driven by sparse confirmed hits amid the month-old US-Israeli war with Iran despite escalation signals. Iran-backed Houthis fired ballistic missiles and drones at Israel on March 28—their first direct attacks since the conflict erupted—prompting fears of renewed Red Sea or Strait of Hormuz strikes, but no vessels have been hit since early March incidents, including three targeted near UAE/Oman/Dubai waters (one catching fire) and the US-linked Chios Lion tanker struck by uncrewed surface vessels. A prior US-Houthi truce curbed shipping attacks until these developments, while robust US naval interceptions and diplomatic pressures limit further successes ahead of potential ceasefire talks.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ET
音量
$10,965終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices fewer than two ships successfully targeted by Iran or its proxies by April 30 at 62.5%, driven by sparse confirmed hits amid the month-old US-Israeli war with Iran despite escalation signals. Iran-backed Houthis fired ballistic missiles and drones at Israel on March 28—their first direct attacks since the conflict erupted—prompting fears of renewed Red Sea or Strait of Hormuz strikes, but no vessels have been hit since early March incidents, including three targeted near UAE/Oman/Dubai waters (one catching fire) and the US-linked Chios Lion tanker struck by uncrewed surface vessels. A prior US-Houthi truce curbed shipping attacks until these developments, while robust US naval interceptions and diplomatic pressures limit further successes ahead of potential ceasefire talks.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$10,965終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices fewer than two ships successfully targeted by Iran or its proxies by April 30 at 62.5%, driven by sparse confirmed hits amid the month-old US-Israeli war with Iran despite escalation signals. Iran-backed Houthis fired ballistic missiles and drones at Israel on March 28—their first direct attacks since the conflict erupted—prompting fears of renewed Red Sea or Strait of Hormuz strikes, but no vessels have been hit since early March incidents, including three targeted near UAE/Oman/Dubai waters (one catching fire) and the US-linked Chios Lion tanker struck by uncrewed surface vessels. A prior US-Houthi truce curbed shipping attacks until these developments, while robust US naval interceptions and diplomatic pressures limit further successes ahead of potential ceasefire talks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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