Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 29% implied probability for 11°C or higher as Warsaw's peak temperature on April 8, closely trailed by 10°C at 27.5% and 9°C at 23.5%, reflecting genuine uncertainty in short-range forecast models amid a cooling trend. The latest European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble centers highs around 9–10°C under a weakening high-pressure ridge allowing increased cloud cover and light showers, as corroborated by Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) guidance. Differentiating factors include subtle model spreads on boundary-layer mixing and frontal timing—warmer GFS runs suggest better insolation for 11°C, while ECMWF leans cooler with overcast conditions. Early April climatology averages 10–12°C highs; watch 12Z model updates for shifts ahead of resolution via Warsaw Chopin Airport observations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日4月8日のワルシャワの最高気温は?
4月8日のワルシャワの最高気温は?
11°C以上 41%
10°C 28%
9℃ 22%
8°C 14%
1℃以下
1%
2°C
1%
3°C
<1%
4°C
1%
5°C
1%
6°C
4%
7°C
6%
8°C
14%
9℃
22%
10°C
28%
11°C以上
34%
11°C以上 41%
10°C 28%
9℃ 22%
8°C 14%
1℃以下
1%
2°C
1%
3°C
<1%
4°C
1%
5°C
1%
6°C
4%
7°C
6%
8°C
14%
9℃
22%
10°C
28%
11°C以上
34%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Apr 4, 2026, 12:11 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 29% implied probability for 11°C or higher as Warsaw's peak temperature on April 8, closely trailed by 10°C at 27.5% and 9°C at 23.5%, reflecting genuine uncertainty in short-range forecast models amid a cooling trend. The latest European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble centers highs around 9–10°C under a weakening high-pressure ridge allowing increased cloud cover and light showers, as corroborated by Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) guidance. Differentiating factors include subtle model spreads on boundary-layer mixing and frontal timing—warmer GFS runs suggest better insolation for 11°C, while ECMWF leans cooler with overcast conditions. Early April climatology averages 10–12°C highs; watch 12Z model updates for shifts ahead of resolution via Warsaw Chopin Airport observations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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