Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in NOAA forecast ensembles for Miami's highest temperature on April 9, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 28% for both 78-79°F and 80-81°F outcomes, driven by model spreads in the Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre projections averaging near 79°F. Recent easterly winds have sustained highs around 82°F through early April, but differing simulations of low-level moisture advection and sea breeze timing introduce variability—clearer skies favor upper bins like 80-81°F, while increased cloud cover or isolated showers could push toward 74-77°F. Historical April averages hover at 82°F, yet spring frontal passages add risk for cooler readings. Watch daily NWS Miami updates and Thursday morning soundings for resolution cues.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Miami on April 9?
Highest temperature in Miami on April 9?
80-81°F 34%
78-79°F 32%
76-77°F 30%
82-83°F 26%
新規
新規
2026/04/09
69°F or below
4%
70-71°F
9%
72-73°F
6%
74-75°F
14%
76-77°F
30%
78-79°F
32%
80-81°F
34%
82-83°F
26%
84-85°F
26%
86-87°F
10%
88°F or higher
12%
80-81°F 34%
78-79°F 32%
76-77°F 30%
82-83°F 26%
新規
新規
2026/04/09
69°F or below
$28 Vol.
4%
70-71°F
$12 Vol.
9%
72-73°F
$12 Vol.
6%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
14%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
30%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
32%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
34%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
26%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
26%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
10%
88°F or higher
$0 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in NOAA forecast ensembles for Miami's highest temperature on April 9, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 28% for both 78-79°F and 80-81°F outcomes, driven by model spreads in the Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre projections averaging near 79°F. Recent easterly winds have sustained highs around 82°F through early April, but differing simulations of low-level moisture advection and sea breeze timing introduce variability—clearer skies favor upper bins like 80-81°F, while increased cloud cover or isolated showers could push toward 74-77°F. Historical April averages hover at 82°F, yet spring frontal passages add risk for cooler readings. Watch daily NWS Miami updates and Thursday morning soundings for resolution cues.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 5, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
音量
$51終了日
2026/04/09マーケット開始日
Apr 5, 2026, 12:09 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in NOAA forecast ensembles for Miami's highest temperature on April 9, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 28% for both 78-79°F and 80-81°F outcomes, driven by model spreads in the Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre projections averaging near 79°F. Recent easterly winds have sustained highs around 82°F through early April, but differing simulations of low-level moisture advection and sea breeze timing introduce variability—clearer skies favor upper bins like 80-81°F, while increased cloud cover or isolated showers could push toward 74-77°F. Historical April averages hover at 82°F, yet spring frontal passages add risk for cooler readings. Watch daily NWS Miami updates and Thursday morning soundings for resolution cues.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$51終了日
2026/04/09マーケット開始日
Apr 5, 2026, 12:09 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in NOAA forecast ensembles for Miami's highest temperature on April 9, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 28% for both 78-79°F and 80-81°F outcomes, driven by model spreads in the Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre projections averaging near 79°F. Recent easterly winds have sustained highs around 82°F through early April, but differing simulations of low-level moisture advection and sea breeze timing introduce variability—clearer skies favor upper bins like 80-81°F, while increased cloud cover or isolated showers could push toward 74-77°F. Historical April averages hover at 82°F, yet spring frontal passages add risk for cooler readings. Watch daily NWS Miami updates and Thursday morning soundings for resolution cues.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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