Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Warsaw's highest temperature on April 9, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 4–13°C and a slight edge to 8–9°C at 28%, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble means hovering near 8°C amid an ongoing early April cold snap across Poland and Central Europe. Recent developments include a deepened trough over Scandinavia funneling northerly winds and cooler air masses, lowering expectations from climatological early-April highs of 10–12°C at Warsaw Chopin Airport station. Model spreads of 4–5°C highlight sensitivity to cloud cover, timing of weak fronts, and high-pressure ridging; IMGW updates and new 12Z runs expected within 48 hours could sharpen odds as resolution nears.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 9?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 9?
9°C 31%
7°C 30%
10°C 30%
8°C 30%
新規
新規
2026/04/09
3°C or below
6%
4°C
24%
5°C
24%
6°C
26%
7°C
30%
8°C
30%
9°C
31%
10°C
30%
11°C
30%
12°C
26%
13°C or higher
26%
9°C 31%
7°C 30%
10°C 30%
8°C 30%
新規
新規
2026/04/09
3°C or below
$0 Vol.
6%
4°C
$0 Vol.
24%
5°C
$0 Vol.
24%
6°C
$0 Vol.
26%
7°C
$0 Vol.
30%
8°C
$0 Vol.
30%
9°C
$0 Vol.
31%
10°C
$0 Vol.
30%
11°C
$0 Vol.
30%
12°C
$0 Vol.
26%
13°C or higher
$0 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Warsaw's highest temperature on April 9, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 4–13°C and a slight edge to 8–9°C at 28%, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble means hovering near 8°C amid an ongoing early April cold snap across Poland and Central Europe. Recent developments include a deepened trough over Scandinavia funneling northerly winds and cooler air masses, lowering expectations from climatological early-April highs of 10–12°C at Warsaw Chopin Airport station. Model spreads of 4–5°C highlight sensitivity to cloud cover, timing of weak fronts, and high-pressure ridging; IMGW updates and new 12Z runs expected within 48 hours could sharpen odds as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 5, 2026, 12:14 AM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/04/09マーケット開始日
Apr 5, 2026, 12:14 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Warsaw's highest temperature on April 9, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 4–13°C and a slight edge to 8–9°C at 28%, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble means hovering near 8°C amid an ongoing early April cold snap across Poland and Central Europe. Recent developments include a deepened trough over Scandinavia funneling northerly winds and cooler air masses, lowering expectations from climatological early-April highs of 10–12°C at Warsaw Chopin Airport station. Model spreads of 4–5°C highlight sensitivity to cloud cover, timing of weak fronts, and high-pressure ridging; IMGW updates and new 12Z runs expected within 48 hours could sharpen odds as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$0終了日
2026/04/09マーケット開始日
Apr 5, 2026, 12:14 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Warsaw's highest temperature on April 9, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 4–13°C and a slight edge to 8–9°C at 28%, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble means hovering near 8°C amid an ongoing early April cold snap across Poland and Central Europe. Recent developments include a deepened trough over Scandinavia funneling northerly winds and cooler air masses, lowering expectations from climatological early-April highs of 10–12°C at Warsaw Chopin Airport station. Model spreads of 4–5°C highlight sensitivity to cloud cover, timing of weak fronts, and high-pressure ridging; IMGW updates and new 12Z runs expected within 48 hours could sharpen odds as resolution nears.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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