Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 19°C at Beijing Capital International Airport on April 1, 2026, driven by official hourly observations from the station—market resolution source—showing temperatures peaking at 19°C this afternoon amid mostly clear skies and light south winds. China Meteorological Administration short-range forecasts aligned precisely with this outcome, reflecting typical early April climatology where daily highs average 17–20°C under high-pressure influence. Supporting METAR data captured steady warming from morning lows near 10°C to the 19°C maximum, with no indications of further intensification. Realistic challenges would require a late-evening measurement revision upward due to urban heat island effects or station microclimate anomalies, though model consensus and diurnal cooling patterns make this unlikely; final daily summary expected from CMA shortly after midnight.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Beijing on April 1?
Highest temperature in Beijing on April 1?
19°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$137,799 Vol.
$137,799 Vol.
2026/04/01
12°C or below
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
Yes
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C or higher
No
19°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$137,799 Vol.
$137,799 Vol.
2026/04/01
12°C or below
$3,731 Vol.
No
13°C
$7,321 Vol.
No
14°C
$7,417 Vol.
No
15°C
$9,995 Vol.
No
16°C
$16,879 Vol.
No
17°C
$13,251 Vol.
No
18°C
$14,726 Vol.
No
19°C
$23,124 Vol.
Yes
20°C
$16,897 Vol.
No
21°C
$13,415 Vol.
No
22°C or higher
$11,043 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 19°C at Beijing Capital International Airport on April 1, 2026, driven by official hourly observations from the station—market resolution source—showing temperatures peaking at 19°C this afternoon amid mostly clear skies and light south winds. China Meteorological Administration short-range forecasts aligned precisely with this outcome, reflecting typical early April climatology where daily highs average 17–20°C under high-pressure influence. Supporting METAR data captured steady warming from morning lows near 10°C to the 19°C maximum, with no indications of further intensification. Realistic challenges would require a late-evening measurement revision upward due to urban heat island effects or station microclimate anomalies, though model consensus and diurnal cooling patterns make this unlikely; final daily summary expected from CMA shortly after midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Mar 29, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
音量
$137,799終了日
2026/04/01マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 2:51 PM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 19°C at Beijing Capital International Airport on April 1, 2026, driven by official hourly observations from the station—market resolution source—showing temperatures peaking at 19°C this afternoon amid mostly clear skies and light south winds. China Meteorological Administration short-range forecasts aligned precisely with this outcome, reflecting typical early April climatology where daily highs average 17–20°C under high-pressure influence. Supporting METAR data captured steady warming from morning lows near 10°C to the 19°C maximum, with no indications of further intensification. Realistic challenges would require a late-evening measurement revision upward due to urban heat island effects or station microclimate anomalies, though model consensus and diurnal cooling patterns make this unlikely; final daily summary expected from CMA shortly after midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$137,799終了日
2026/04/01マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 2:51 PM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 19°C at Beijing Capital International Airport on April 1, 2026, driven by official hourly observations from the station—market resolution source—showing temperatures peaking at 19°C this afternoon amid mostly clear skies and light south winds. China Meteorological Administration short-range forecasts aligned precisely with this outcome, reflecting typical early April climatology where daily highs average 17–20°C under high-pressure influence. Supporting METAR data captured steady warming from morning lows near 10°C to the 19°C maximum, with no indications of further intensification. Realistic challenges would require a late-evening measurement revision upward due to urban heat island effects or station microclimate anomalies, though model consensus and diurnal cooling patterns make this unlikely; final daily summary expected from CMA shortly after midnight.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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